Katherine Wells, Annika Ganzeveld, Carolyn Moorman,

Kelly Campa, Avery Borens, and Nicholas Carl



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Iran appears increasingly as though it seeks to foment sectarian conflict in Syria, which it could then exploit to establish proxy and partner militias there. Outlets affiliated with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Armed Forces General Staff published reports on December 30 to this end. One outlet reported on HTS-affiliated elements committing violence against Syrian Alawites. Another outlet reported that armed “resistance” has formed against the HTS-led interim government in response to its offenses against the Syrian people. CTP-ISW has independently observed anti-HTS elements appearing in predominantly Alawite areas in recent days. That the Iranian outlet framed these elements as “resistance” is noteworthy given that the term has an overwhelmingly positive connotation in Iranian regime discourse. Other Iranian outlets that have no obvious affiliation with the Iranian security establishment have published reports emphasizing sectarian tensions in recent days as well. For instance, one outlet reported on purported HTS efforts to achieve the “de-Shia-ization of Syria.” A Middle Eastern source separately told a Western analyst that regional countries have shared intelligence with HTS in recent days that the IRGC is planning to “foster, direct, and support an insurgency” in Syria, presumably by exploiting the sectarian tension that Iran is currently trying to stoke. Another source told the Western analyst that HTS-led forces detained two former Syrian regime operatives with IRGC identification cards and at least three Lebanese nationals. CTP-ISW cannot verify these reports, but it is consistent with senior Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, suggesting in recent days that Syrian youth should arm and mobilize against the interim government.

HTS leader Ahmed al Shara met with senior Ukranian officials in Damascus on December 30. A delegation led by Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Andrii Sybiha met with Syrian Foreign Affairs Minister Assad al Shaibani and Intelligence Chief Anas Khattab. Shaibani said that there will be a “strategic partnership” between Ukraine and Syria during a press conference after the meeting.

HTS leader Ahmed al Shara met with Kuwaiti Foreign Affairs Minister Abdullah Ali al Yahya and Secretary General of the Gulf Cooperation Council Jassam Mohammed al Badawi in Damascus on December 30. Syrian Foreign Affairs Minister Assad al Shaibani and Syrian Intelligence Chief Anas Khattab attended the meeting as well. Shaibani said that Kuwait and Syria will establish political, economic, and humanitarian cooperation during a press conference after the meeting.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued operations within the Israel-Syria disengagement zone on December 30. Syrian media reported that the IDF advanced into al Baath and entered government buildings to search for weapons. The IDF previously entered al Baath and met with local officials to negotiate weapons collection efforts in the area on December 22. Local media reported on December 30 that the IDF remain near Maariyah and Jamleh villages, Daraa Province. The IDF first began operations within the disengagement zone on December 8.

Key Takeaways:

• Iran: Iran appears increasingly as though it seeks to foment sectarian conflict in Syria, which it could then exploit to establish proxy and partner militias there.

• Syria: HTS leader Ahmed al Shara appointed loyalists to the senior levels of the new Syrian security establishment that he is currently forming.

• Syria: HTS-interim government officials have continued to meet with military commanders affiliated with the Turkish-backed SNA.

• Gaza Strip: Palestinian fighters conducted a relatively large attack targeting the IDF in the northern Gaza Strip.

Click Here to Read the Full Report

ISW–CTP has launched an interactive control of terrain map of Syria in response to the Syrian opposition offensive in northwestern Syria that began on November 27. It represents our medium-confidence assessment. We will continue to refine this control of terrain (CoT) assessment over the coming days, weeks, and months to increase our confidence levels.

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