Carolyn Moorman, Ria Reddy, Katherine Wells, Johanna Moore,

Annika Ganzeveld, Ben Rezaei, Kelly Campa, Avery Borens,

and Brian Carter

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

Click here to view ISW–CTP's Gaza Control-of-Terrain map and here for our interactive control-of-terrain map of Syria.

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The Israeli security cabinet approved the Israel-Hamas ceasefire-hostage deal on January 17. Israel’s full cabinet began deliberating on the deal on January 17 but has not released a decision on it as of the time of this writing. The full cabinet will very likely approve the deal, given that the security cabinet recommended the deal’s approval. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the cabinet that the United States promised to support Israel resuming the war in the Gaza Strip if the second phase of ceasefire negations fail or Israel’s security demands are not met, according to a Netanyahu aide speaking to Axios on January 17.

The Prime Minister’s office said that the ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages should start at 0900 ET on January 19. The Israeli government reportedly believes that most of the 33 hostages that Hamas will release in the first phase of the deal are alive, but Hamas has not confirmed a list of living and dead hostages. An Israeli official told Axios on January 17 that Israel will not release the list of the Palestinian prisoners it will release under the deal until Hamas shares this information. Israeli media correspondents reported on January 17 that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) created three forward reception points on the border of the Gaza Strip to receive the hostages. The hostages will also receive immediate support from the IDF, doctors, and mental health professionals upon their release.

Key Takeaways:

• Gaza Strip Ceasefire: The Prime Minister’s office said that the ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages should start at 0900 ET on January 19. All three IDF divisions currently in the Strip will gradually withdraw, with the 99th Division (currently in the Netzarim Corridor) departing first.

• Regional Implications of Gaza Ceasefire: Both Iranian-backed Iraqi militias and the Houthi movement ceased military operations against Israel after the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, which underscores that the October 7 War was a regional conflict between Iran and its Axis of Resistance and Israel. The opening attacks by the Houthis, the Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, and Hezbollah were de-facto declarations of war against Israel that escalated and regionalized the war. Hezbollah only made a separate peace with Israel after the IDF compelled it to do so by defeating Hezbollah militarily.

• Houthis React to Gaza Ceasefire: The Houthis also paused their campaign against Israel, which will enable the Houthis to institutionalize lessons learned and replenish arms stockpiles as needed. The Houthis framed their ceasefire pause as conditional and implied that the ceasefire is only a pause in the wider war that the Houthis believe will end in the destruction of the Israeli state.

• Syrian Democratic Forces: Turkey continues to pressure the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to rapidly disarm and integrate into the HTS-led interim Syrian government. Turkish President Recep Erdogan stated that Kurdish armed groups in northern Syria must choose to either lay down their arms peacefully or “be forced to do so,” presumably by Turkey and its proxies.

• Russo-Iranian Agreement: The Iran-Russia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership agreement signed on January 17 notably lacks a mutual defense clause. The agreement outlines bilateral defense and security cooperation, including joint military exercises and operations, personnel training, port visits by military vessels, the exchange of military officers, and intelligence sharing.

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