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[ISW] 러시아의 공세 캠페인 평가, 2025년 4월 26일

by Summa posted Apr 27, 2025
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```html 주요 요점

주요 요점

  • 러시아 참모총장 발레리 게라시모프 육군 대장은 4월 26일 러시아군이 쿠르스크주에서 모든 우크라이나군을 몰아냈다고 주장했습니다.
  • 2024년 8월 우크라이나가 쿠르스크주에 침공하여 정예 공수부대(VDV) 및 해군 보병 부대를 포함한 일부 러시아 전투력을 고정시켰지만, 장기적인 영향은 현재까지 불분명합니다.
  • 게라시모프는 쿠르스크주에서 우크라이나군을 몰아내기 위한 러시아의 노력을 도운 북한 군인들에게 감사를 표함으로써 러시아가 북한군이 쿠르스크주에서 러시아 작전에 참여했다는 사실을 공식적으로 처음 인정했습니다.
  • 도널드 트럼프 미국 대통령은 미국이 더 이상 우크라이나 전쟁을 해결하기 위한 구체적인 기한을 추구하지 않고 있다고 밝혔습니다. 이는 행정부가 이전에 밝힌 전쟁을 첫 100일 이내에 종식시키겠다는 목표에서 벗어난 것입니다.
  • 러시아는 2025년 여름과 가을에 우크라이나에서 오토바이 사용을 공격 작전에 체계적으로 통합할 준비를 하고 있는 것으로 보이며, 우크라이나의 능숙한 드론 역량을 상쇄할 가능성이 큽니다.
  • 우크라이나군은 최근 포크로프스크 근처에서 진격했습니다. 러시아군은 최근 노보파블리프카, 쿠르카호베, 벨리카 노보실카 근처에서 진격했습니다.

분류: 군사 관련 주요 국가: 러시아, 우크라이나, 북한 향후 전망: 러시아와 우크라이나 간의 전쟁은 장기화될 가능성이 높습니다. 러시아는 우크라이나의 영토를 더 많이 점령하려 할 것이고, 우크라이나는 러시아의 점령에 저항하려 할 것입니다. 미국과 유럽 연합은 우크라이나를 지원하기 위해 계속해서 군사 및 경제 지원을 제공할 것입니다.
```

[원문]

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment

Support ISW

Daria Novikov, Nicole Wolkov, Olivia Gibson,

Davit Gasparyan, and George Barros with William Runkel


April 26, 2025, 5 pm ET

Click here to view our Russia-Ukraine interactive maps.


Click here to view our special reports since 2025.

Click here to read the latest "Russian Occupation Update," a biweekly product line tracking activities in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine.


Click here to read the latest "Russian Force Generation and Adaptations Update," a weekly report on Russian recruitment efforts, force generation, force reconstitution, and technological adaptations.

Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov claimed on April 26 that Russian forces pushed all Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast. Gerasimov told Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 26 that Russian forces had fully defeated Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast and seized Gornal (southwest of Sudzha), the last Ukrainian-held settlement in Kursk Oblast. Gerasimov credited elements of the Russian 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]), 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet [BSF]), 40th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet), 177th Naval Infantry Regiment (Caspian Flotilla), and 1427th Motorized Rifle Regiment (formed during the 2022 partial reserve call up) with seizing Gornal. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov was visiting a Russian command post in Kursk Oblast to hear reports from Kursk Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Valery Solodchuk when Russian forces seized Gornal. Geolocated footage published on April 26 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced along Gora Street in central Gornal. The Ukrainian General Staff refuted the Russian claims later on April 26 and stated that Ukrainian forces maintain unspecified positions in Kursk Oblast. The General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled five Russian assaults in Kursk Oblast on April 26. Russian milbloggers similarly claimed on April 26 that fighting continued near Oleshnya (northwest of Gornal), Guyevo (south of Sudzha near the international border), and St. Nicholas Monastery (southwest of Guyevo).


US President Donald Trump stated that the United States is no longer pursuing a concrete deadline for achieving a resolution to the war in Ukraine — a departure from the administration’s previously stated goal of ending the war within its first 100 days. Trump told reporters on April 25 that the United States has "no deadline" to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. Trump also stated on April 26 that there was "no reason" for Russia’s strikes on civilian areas and reiterated a previously stated concern that "[Russian President Vladimir Putin] is just tapping me along" by disingenuously ceasefire and peace negotiations. Trump stated that Putin's actions make Trump think that "maybe [Putin] doesn't want to stop the war" and "has to be dealt with differently." Russian officials have repeatedly to leverage heightened US interest in negotiating a swift resolution to the war in Ukraine to make demands tantamount to Ukrainian surrender and incompatible with Trump’s stated goal of achieving a stable and enduring peace in Ukraine. Russian forces have also conducted a string of strikes against civilian areas in recent weeks, including a devastating strike on Kyiv City on the night of April 23 to 24. Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky met in Vatican City on April 26 to discuss the ongoing peace talks. Zelensky reported on April 26 that he and Trump discussed civilian safety, a full and unconditional ceasefire, and a lasting peace that prevents resumption of hostilities. White House Communications Director Steven Cheung stated that Trump and Zelensky had a "very productive discussion."


Russia is likely preparing to systematically integrate motorcycle usage into offensive operations in Ukraine for Summer and Fall 2025, likely to offset adept Ukrainian drone capabilities. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) published footage on April 26 showing likely elements of the 299th (Airborne) VDV Regiment (98th VDV Division) practicing offensive and defensive tactics on motorcycles in groups of two to three people at a Russian training ground. The video indicates that the Russian military is likely developing a tactical doctrine for systematic offensive motorcycle usage and may be preparing to issue an increased number of motorcycles to Russian personnel in Ukraine. Ukrainian Kharkiv Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Pavlo Shamshyn reported that Ukrainian intelligence noted that the Russian military is training its soldiers in combat tactics with motorcycles, suggesting that Russian forces will likely increasingly integrate motorcycles into offensive operations in Ukraine in Summer and Fall 2025. Shamshyn noted that motorcycles allow Russian soldiers to enhance their speed and maneuverability, which is crucial for evading Ukrainian drone strikes, but that the loud noise of the motorcycle prevents the rider from hearing approaching Ukrainian drones. ISW has observed an increased trend of Russian units conducting mechanized and combined motorized assaults and transporting infantry with motorcycles and civilian vehicles throughout the frontline as Russian command continues to adapt its tactics to offset Ukrainian drone strikes and likely to mitigate the Russian military's equipment constraints resulting from high armored vehicle losses in Summer and early Fall 2024. Russian forces notably recently advanced during a motorized assault near Bahatyr comprised entirely of motorcycles and civilian vehicles.


Key Takeaways:


  • Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov claimed on April 26 that Russian forces pushed all Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast.



  • Ukraine's August 2024 incursion into Kursk Oblast successfully pinned some Russian combat power, including elite airborne (VDV) and naval infantry units, but its long-term effects remain unclear at this time.


  • Gerasimov made the first official Russian acknowledgement of North Korean troop participation in Russian operations in Kursk Oblast by thanking North Korean servicemembers for their assistance in Russian efforts to push Ukrainian forces out of the region.


  • US President Donald Trump stated that the United States is no longer pursuing a concrete deadline for achieving a resolution to the war in Ukraine — a departure from the administration’s previously stated goal of ending the war within its first 100 days.


  • Russia is likely preparing to systematically integrate motorcycle usage into offensive operations in Ukraine for Summer and Fall 2025, likely to offset adept Ukrainian drone capabilities.


  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka, Kurkakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.

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