Andie Parry, Ria Reddy, Katherine Wells, Ben Rezaei, Ben Schmida, Avery Borens, Alexandra Braverman, Carolyn Moorman, Johanna Moore, and Annika Ganzeveld



Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

Click here to view ISW–CTP's interactive control-of-terrain map of Syria.

Click here to view ISW's complete portfolio of interactive maps.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei expressed pessimism about the US-Iran nuclear negotiations and explicitly rejected the US demand for zero uranium enrichment. Khamenei’s statements are consistent with CTP-ISW's assessment that disagreements between Iran and the United States about the issue of zero uranium enrichment may stall the negotiations or delay a deal. Khamenei explicitly rejected the US demand for zero uranium enrichment during a speech on May 20. This speech marked the first time that Khamenei had publicly discussed the US-Iran negotiations since they started on April 12. Khamenei stated that the US demand for zero uranium enrichment is "very wrong” and emphasized that Iran will "follow its own policy and method” regarding this issue." Khamenei's stated position is consistent with recent statements from other senior Iranian officials. Khamenei also compared the current US-Iran negotiations to previous negotiations under former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, stating that negotiations under Raisi never reached a conclusion and that the regime "do[es] not think they will reach a conclusion now." An unspecified Iranian political insider told a UK-based outlet that there is an internal discussion in Iran "over the utility of attending further talks at this time," given the US demand for zero uranium enrichment. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister and lead negotiator Abbas Araghchi stated on May 20 that Iran has not yet accepted a proposed date for the fifth round of the US-Iran negotiations.

Khamenei may have framed the US-Iran nuclear negotiations negatively to lower public expectations for a deal and imminent economic relief. Senior Iranian officials have repeatedly emphasized that the main goal of the US-Iran negotiations is to lift sanctions on Iran. Iran is facing a severe economic and energy crisis amid international sanctions. Iran's economic situation has fueled public frustration, which may stoke protests that could threaten regime stability. CTP-ISW previously assessed that Khamenei may calculate that engaging in nuclear negotiations with the United States will improve Iranian economic conditions. The Iranian rial appreciated from a near-record low of 1,0005,500 rials to one US dollar on April 11 to 879,000 rials to one US dollar on April 14 after the first round of the US-Iran nuclear negotiations on April 12. Khamenei's messaging may aim to manage domestic expectations about the possibility of a nuclear deal in an effort to protect the regime from potential internal backlash if the talks fail and Iran does not secure sanctions relief.

Key Takeaways:

• US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei expressed pessimism about the US-Iran nuclear negotiations and explicitly rejected the US demand for zero uranium enrichment. Khamenei’s statements are consistent with CTP-ISW's assessment that disagreements between Iran and the United States about the issue of zero uranium enrichment may stall the negotiations or delay a deal. Khamenei may have framed the US-Iran nuclear negotiations negatively to lower public expectations for a deal and imminent economic relief.



• Iranian Preparations for a Potential US or Israeli Strike: The Iranian Passive Defense Organization Supreme Council met on May 20, likely to coordinate preparations to protect critical infrastructure ahead of a potential US or Israeli strike. The Passive Defense Organization is a government body that is responsible for planning, coordinating, and directing activities to protect civilian, military, and nuclear infrastructure from military, chemical, cyber, or economic threats. Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad notably also attended the meeting, which suggests that Iran is concerned about a potential strike on its energy infrastructure.

• Houthi Campaign Against Israel: The Houthis announced on May 19 that they will target Haifa Port in Israel in retaliation for recent Israeli airstrikes on Houthi-controlled ports in Yemen. Attacks on Haifa Port would support the Houthis’ October 7 War objective to economically isolate Israel. The Houthis are attempting to enforce this economic blockade while adhering to the terms of the US-Houthi ceasefire.

• Iranian Strategy in the Caucasus: Iran is deepening high-level defense cooperation with Armenia, likely as part of a broader strategy to counter Israeli, Turkish, and Western influence in the South Caucasus. Iranian Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Minister Brigadier General Aziz Nasir Zadeh met with Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan in Yerevan, Armenia, on May 20. The Iranian Defense Ministry is responsible for foreign arms sales and defense agreements. Iran has historically maintained close ties to Armenia and has reportedly provided security assistance to Armenia in recent years. Israeli media claimed in July 2023, for example, that Armenia had used Iranian Shahed drones in its conflict with Azerbaijan. Iran is simultaneously maintaining military, political, and economic ties with Azerbaijan to counter external influences in the South Caucasus. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Forces Mirza Kuchak Khan Special Forces Brigade and Azerbaijani Special Forces began joint exercises along the Iran-Azerbaijan border on May 17.

• Sanctions Relief in Syria: The European Union’s (EU) and United States’ plan to lift economic sanctions on Syria in the coming weeks will help stabilize the Syrian economy, but will not address other sources of potential instability in Syria. Sanctions relief does not preclude the possibility of renewed internal conflict in Syria caused by other factors. The EU and the United States can continue to impose targeted individual sanctions to encourage the Syrian government to rein in the most extreme elements of its security services. Targeted sanctions could assuage minority groups’ concerns about extreme elements committing abuses against their communities.

Click Here to Read the Full Update

Website | Jobs & Internships

Follow ISW on social media:

Facebook | X | YouTube | Instagram | LinkedIn | Threads | Bluesky

Donate online or by sending a check to the Institute for the Study of War at 1400 16th Street NW, Suite #515, Washington, DC, 20036. Please consider including the Institute for the Study of War in your estate plans.

ISW is a tax-exempt organization under section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Donations are tax-deductible to the extent permitted by law.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation's ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives.