Russian officials continue to publicly reiterate that Russia is uninterested in a near-term solution to ending the war in Ukraine that does not acquiesce to Moscow’s demands. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed on July 20 that Russia is ready to "move quickly" with peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine but that Russia must achieve its goals, which Peskov claimed are “obvious” and “do not change.” Kremlin officials have consistently claimed that any peace settlement must eliminate the alleged "root causes" of the war and repeated Russia's original war aims to "denazify" and "demilitarize" Ukraine – terms the Kremlin has used throughout the war to call for regime change in Ukraine, Ukrainian neutrality, changes to NATO's open-door policy, and the removal of Ukraine's ability to defend itself against future Russian aggression. Peskov’s July 20 statements underline the Kremlin's continued uninterest in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine and efforts rather to prolong the war — as ISW continues to assess.
German and Ukrainian officials assessed that Russia continues to expand its production of Shahed-type drones in order to launch even larger long-range drone strike packages that include up to 2,000 drones in a single night. Russian forces may be able to strike Ukraine with up to 2,000 drones in a single night by November 2025 should the current pattern of growth in nightly Russian drone usage continue. The head of the German Ministry of Defense's Planning and Command Staff, Major General Christian Freuding, assessed on July 19 that Russia plans to further increase its drone production capacity with the goal of launching 2,000 drones in one overnight strike package against Ukraine. Freuding stated that Ukraine and its international partners must consider cost-effective ways of countering Russia's large strike packages, as traditional air defense methods, such as those that use expensive Patriot interceptors, are not well-suited as an anti-drone air defense strategy. Commander of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces Major Robert Brovdi stated on July 4 that Russia could launch 1,000 drones in a single strike package due to increased production and stockpiles. Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) assessed on June 9 that Russian can produce roughly 170 Shahed-type drones per day and that Russia plans to increase production capacity to 190 drones per day by the end of 2025. Russia has been rapidly increasing the number of Shahed-type strike drones and decoy drones in its overnight strike packages in recent weeks, with Russia's largest drone strike package thus far including 728 drones on the night of July 8 to 9. Russia's increased production capacities in recent months have allowed Russia to dramatically increase its strike packages in a relatively short period of time. Russia rarely launched more than 200 drones per night between January and May 2025 but then increased the peak number of drones launched in one night from 250 in late May 2025 to over 700 in early July 2025. Russia’s use of one-way attack drones in nightly strike packages grew at an average monthly rate of 31 percent in both June and July 2025. ISW assesses that Russia may be able to launch up to 2,000 drones in one night by November 2025, should this current growth trend in drone usage continue. This forecast will be invalidated if the monthly Russian drone usage growth rate either increases or decreases from 31 percent. Russian forces will likely not be able to sustain such large strike packages every night but will likely launch large strike packages followed by days of smaller packages as they are now. Western investment in Ukraine's interceptor drone development and production remains critical for Ukraine's ability to counter large-scale Russian strike packages and protect its civilian population.
Key Takeaways:
- Russian officials continue to publicly reiterate that Russia is uninterested in a near-term solution to ending the war in Ukraine that does not acquiesce to Moscow’s demands.
- German and Ukrainian officials assessed that Russia continues to expand its production of Shahed-type drones in order to launch even larger long-range drone strike packages that include up to 2,000 drones in a single night. Russian forces may be able to strike Ukraine with up to 2,000 drones in a single night by November 2025 should the current pattern of growth in nightly Russian drone usage continue.
- Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev reiterated demands for Russia to take responsibility for the December 2024 downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane, an incident that continues to create tension in the Russian-Azerbaijani relationship.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Sumy and Zaporizhia oblasts and near Toretsk. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Lyman and Novopavlivka.
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[국방부] 사이버작전사령부, 사이버 플래그 훈련 참가
[ISW] 이란 업데이트, 2025년 7월 20일