US President Donald Trump announced a new deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine no later than August 9. Trump stated on July 28 that he is “very disappointed” with Putin and will “reduce” his previously articulated 50-day deadline by which Putin must agree to peace negotiations. Trump stated that he will make a new deadline of roughly “10 to 12 days from today [July 28]" as Putin’s ongoing disinterest in peace negotiations leaves “no reason” for the United States to delay its response. Trump insinuated that he will more formally announce the new deadline on the evening of July 28 or on July 29. Trump's new deadline would expire between August 7 and 9. Trump previously stated on July 14 that Putin had 50 days (September 2) to conclude a peace agreement with Ukraine or face "severe” 100 percent secondary tariffs on its trade partners.
Kremlin officials continue to frame Russia as in direct geopolitical confrontation with the West in order to generate domestic support for the war in Ukraine and future Russian aggression against NATO. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed at a Russian youth forum on July 28 that “Russia is fighting alone against the entire West... for the first time in history” and that Russia “must rely on [itself].” Lavrov claimed that Russia has "no allies on the battlefield," unlike during the first and second World Wars. Lavrov’s claim that Russia is operating alone in its war in Ukraine ignores the current support that Russia receives from North Korea, Iran, and the People's Republic of China (PRC). North Korea has sent ballistic missiles, artillery shells, and North Korean troops to support Russia's war effort against Ukraine, and there are economic and political signs of a growing rapprochement between Russia and North Korea. Iranian Shahed drones have played a key role in Russia‘s air campaigns against Ukrainian cities throughout the war, and Iran's assistance has allowed Russia to become self-sufficient in producing the Shahed-variants that Russian forces are increasingly leveraging in frontline strikes. Russia largely depends on the PRC for support in Russia's ongoing sanctions evasion schemes, and Chinese companies provide critical dual-use components and microelectronics for Russian military technology. Strengthening relationships between Russia, Iran, North Korea, and the PRC constitute a growing threat to Western security, and Russia is actively pursuing a global anti-Western alliance. Lavrov's statements also underscore the Kremlin's efforts to install an informal state ideology that perpetuates the idea that the West is in an existential conflict with Russia in order to foster unquestioning support of the Russian government.
Lavrov additionally claimed that Russia had “no alternative” to launching its war in Ukraine as Russia needed to protect Russian-language speakers in Ukraine, a routine narrative that Russian officials use to justify Russian aggression against Ukraine. Lavrov claimed that Russia must insist on its “legitimate” demand: “no drawing Ukraine into NATO, no expansion of NATO at all," and recognition of Russia's illegal annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts and Crimea. Lavrov's statements reinforce the Kremlin's commitment to its war goals in Ukraine to the Russian public, and specifically Russian youth. The Kremlin has devoted a significant amount of time and energy to generating domestic support for the war, and Russian state and independent polling suggest that most Russians support continuing the war in Ukraine until Russia achieves its war aims of Ukrainian "denazification," demilitarization, and neutrality. Russian society's commitment to achieving Russia's war aims, which the Kremlin has worked hard to foster, will make it much harder for Russian President Vladimir Putin to present any peace agreement that falls far short of his stated aims as a victory to his domestic audience. Putin is unlikely to make any concessions in his war aims unless he is forced to do so by significant Ukrainian battlefield victories, as any negotiated end to the war that does not achieve all of Putin's objectives would call into question the success, and, potentially, wisdom of Russia's military campaign in Ukraine.
Key Takeaways:
- US President Donald Trump announced a new deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine no later than August 9.
- Kremlin officials continue to frame Russia as in direct geopolitical confrontation with the West in order to generate domestic support for the war in Ukraine and future Russian aggression against NATO.
- Russian forces recently advanced in the Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, and Velyka Novosilka directions.
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