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[ISW] 러시아 공세 캠페인 평가, 2024년 1월 14일

by 맘씨 posted Jan 15, 2024
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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment

Support ISW

Angelica Evans, Nicole Wolkov, Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan



January 14, 2024, 5:30 pm ET

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.


Click here to see ISW’s 3D control-of-terrain topographic map of Ukraine. The use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for accessing this data-heavy tool.


Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline.

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces are preparing to launch a new offensive in the coming weeks once the ground freezes in eastern and southern Ukraine. Russian literary critic and alternative historian Sergey Pereslegin claimed on January 12 that Russian forces will launch a large-scale offensive effort in Ukraine sometime between January 12 and February 2 after the ground freezes and likely after Ukrainian forces grow “exhausted” of defending their positions in Avdiivka and east (left) bank Kherson Oblast. Pereslegin claimed that Russians should be more concerned about Russia launching its offensive at the wrong time or making the same “mistakes” that Ukraine made during its 2023 counteroffensive than of a renewed Ukrainian offensive effort in 2024. Pereslegin also expressed concern that Russia does not have enough manpower to conduct the large-scale offensive effort he is anticipating. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed on January 14 that the number of Russian military personnel on the frontline allows Russian forces to conduct localized tactical maneuvers but is unlikely to support operationally significant "breakthroughs." The milblogger claimed that freezing weather is impacting Russian and Ukrainian ground activity and artillery and drone systems throughout the front, particularly in the Kherson direction. A Russian milblogger claimed on January 12 that freezing weather conditions are preventing Russian forces from conducting ground operations and advancing north of Verbove in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian aviation is unable to operate in southern Ukraine due to freezing weather conditions. Former Roscosmos (Russian space agency) head and ultranationalist figure Dmitry Rogozin claimed on January 14 that the frontline in western Zaporizhia Oblast is “buzzing like a bee hive” due to the large number of Ukrainian drones operating, however. Rogozin claimed that Ukrainian forces devote half a dozen drones to striking each valuable target in western Zaporizhia Oblast and that intense Ukrainian drone use is complicating Russian personnel rotations. ISW previously assessed that freezing temperatures in Ukraine are likely currently constraining operations along the front but will likely create more favorable terrain for mechanized maneuver warfare as the ground freezes in the coming weeks. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will likely try to sustain or intensify localized offensive operations throughout eastern Ukraine in an attempt to seize and retain the initiative regardless of winter weather and terrain conditions. ISW also assesses, however, that Russian forces will be unable to make operationally significant breakthroughs.

 

Russian forces likely continue to experiment and adapt their missile and drone strike packages against Ukraine in an effort to penetrate Ukrainian air defenses. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have recently been launching strikes against Ukraine using a variety of missile types, including hypersonic Kh-47 Kinzhal ballistic missiles. The milblogger claimed that Russian forces launched unspecified air decoys and Shahed drones in order to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense systems so that Russian forces could conduct successful missile strikes. ISW has observed Russian forces experimenting with various combinations of drone and missile strikes in an effort to penetrate Ukrainian air defense systems as Ukrainian forces have adapted to Russian strike patterns. ISW previously assessed that Russia may be intensifying efforts to source ballistic missiles from abroad because ballistic missiles may be more successful in striking targets in Ukraine in some circumstances. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated on January 14 that sanctions are likely reducing the quality of Russian missiles. The reported decrease in quality of Russian missiles may further hinder Russia’s ability to conduct successful strike series against Ukraine.


Key Takeaways:


  • Russian sources claimed that Russian forces are preparing to launch a new offensive in the coming weeks once the ground freezes in eastern and southern Ukraine.


  • Russian forces likely continue to experiment and adapt their missile and drone strike packages against Ukraine in an effort to penetrate Ukrainian air defenses.


  • Representatives from 83 countries met to discuss the implementation of Ukraine’s Peace Formula on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on January 14.


  • The Kremlin continues to undertake measures to undermine the Republic of Tatarstan’s autonomy within the Russian Federation and cultural heritage despite the republic’s sacrifices on behalf of the Russian war in Ukraine.


  • The Russian Investigative Committee will officially open a case into the fire that destroyed a large Wildberries warehouse in St. Petersburg.


  • Positional engagements continued along the Kupyansk-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut and Avdiivka, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.


  • Moscow-based international exhibition-forum “Russia” opened the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) “Army of Children” exhibit on January 14 to educate children about the military and careers in the Russian Armed Forces.


  • Swedish Defense Materiel Administration announced on January 14 that it had signed an agreement with Nordic Ammunition Company (Nammo) to increase the production and deliveries of 155mm artillery ammunition to support Ukraine’s needs.


  • The Kremlin is funding select non-profit organizations operating in occupied areas that propagate Kremlin social narratives.


Click here to read the full assessment.

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The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation's ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives.



[요약]

## 주요 요점: * 러시아 소식통은 지상이 동부와 남부 우크라이나에서 얼면 러시아군이 새로운 공세를 시작할 준비를 하고 있다고 주장했습니다. * 러시아군은 우크라이나의 방공을 뚫기 위해 미사일과 드론 공격 패키지를 계속 실험하고 조정하고 있습니다. * 우크라이나 평화 공식의 실행에 대해 논의하기 위해 83개국의 대표들이 1월 14일 스위스 다보스에서 열린 세계 경제 포럼의 sidelines에서 만났습니다. * 크렘린은 우크라이나 전쟁에서 공화국의 희생에도 불구하고 타타르스탄 공화국의 자치권과 문화 유산을 훼손하기 위한 조치를 계속 취하고 있습니다. * 러시아 수사 위원회는 상트페테르부르크에서 대형 Wildberries 창고를 파괴한 화재에 대한 사건을 공식적으로 공개할 것입니다. * 쿠피얀스크-크레민나 전선, 바흐무트와 아브디이프카 근처, 도네츠크-자포리자주 오블라스트 경계 지역, 자포리자주 서부, 그리고 헤르손 오블라스트의 동쪽(좌안)에서 위치 교전이 계속되었습니다. * 모스크바에 있는 국제 전시회 포럼 "러시아"는 1월 14일에 러시아 국방부(MoD)의 "어린이 군대" 전시회를 열어 어린이들에게 군대와 러시아 군대에서의 경력에 대해 교육했습니다. * 스웨덴 국방 물자 관리국은 1월 14일에 우크라이나의 필요를 지원하기 위해 노르딕 탄약 회사(Nammo)와 155mm 포병 탄약의 생산과 공급을 늘리기 위한 계약을 체결했다고 발표했습니다. * 크렘린은 점령 지역에서 활동하는 일부 비영리 단체에 자금을 지원하여 크렘린의 사회적 서사를 선전합니다.


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