Unspecified Iranian officials said that Iran could “intensify its proxy war” against Israel if Israel attacks Lebanese Hezbollah, which is consistent with Iran's decades-old use of its proxies. Seven Iranian, Lebanese, and regional sources told Reuters on March 14 that IRGC Quds Force Commander Brig. Gen. Esmail Ghaani met with Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut in February 2024 to discuss the possibility of an Israeli offensive against Hezbollah. Three of the sources told Reuters that an Israeli offensive against Hezbollah “could pressure Iran to react more forcefully" by intensifying “its proxy war” against Israel. Iran has avoided directly fighting Israel and the United States in the current war, instead using its proxies across the region to fight on Iran’s behalf. Iran has long used its regional proxies to pursue Iranian strategic objectives throughout the region. This strategy decreases the risk that Iran will face direct retaliation from its adversaries by obfuscating Iran’s role in escalation. Iranian media reported in October 2023 that Iran formed a “joint operations room” to coordinate operations and attacks against Israel and the United States with its proxies in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Iranian media claimed that Hezbollah would use Syrian ground forces--as part of the joint operations room--to invade Israel in the event of an Israeli attack on Hezbollah. Hezbollah is closely affiliated with the Syrian Arab Army’s 1st Corps.
The Iranian officials may also have been messaging Iran’s opposition to a direct confrontation with Israel to try to appease the Iranian public. An Iranian source told Reuters that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei seeks to avoid a direct war with Israel. Some Iranians criticize the regime for funding Iran’s proxies and focusing on external affairs while failing to improve citizens’ lives and the economy. Many of the sociocultural, economic, and political frustrations that ignited the Mahsa Amini movement that began in September 2022 remain prevalent among the Iranian population, moreover.
Key Takeaways:
- Lebanon: Unspecified Iranian officials said that Iran could “intensify its proxy war” against Israel if Israel attacks Lebanese Hezbollah, which is consistent with Iran's decades-old use of its proxies.
- Iran has long used its regional proxies to pursue Iranian strategic objectives throughout the region. This strategy decreases the risk that Iran will face direct retaliation from its adversaries by obfuscating Iran’s role in escalation.
- Iranian media reported in October 2023 that Iran formed a “joint operations room” to coordinate operations and attacks against Israel and the United States with its proxies in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
- Iranian media claimed that Hezbollah would use Syrian ground forces—as part of the joint operations room—to invade Israel in the event of an Israeli attack on Hezbollah. Hezbollah is closely affiliated with the Syrian Arab Army’s 1st Corps.
- The Telegraph reported that five Iranian-controlled, US-sanctioned container ships are using European ports to disguise weapons shipments to Lebanese Hezbollah.
- Northern Gaza Strip: Palestinian fighters clashed with Israeli forces in Zahra, south of Gaza City.
- Negotiations: Hamas submitted a ceasefire proposal and a hostage-for-prisoner exchange to international mediators.
- Yemen: Houthi fighters conducted at least three attacks targeting civilian and military vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
- Syria: Israel likely conducted a drone strike targeting a truck transporting weapons for Iranian-backed militias near Albu Kamal, Syria.
- Iran: The G7 countries warned Iran that it should not transfer missiles to Russia.
- West Bank: Tens of thousands of Palestinian worshippers gathered peacefully at the al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem for Ramadan prayers, despite repeated Hamas calls to “defend” the mosque.
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