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Syrian opposition forces have continued to advance rapidly and pushed through regime defensive lines in the northern Hama countryside on December 3. Opposition forces—led by Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)—advanced through the northern Hama countryside and seized numerous towns that regime force previously secured only two days ago. Opposition forces captured Halfaya, northwest of Hama City, after advancing over the Orontes River possibly using the Mahrada dam. Opposition forces also seized Tayybat al Imam, Souran, and Maardis from regime control in their advance toward Hama City. The opposition seized SAA tanks in at least one of these towns, suggesting that regime forces withdrew in a disorderly fashion. Russian forces conducted several airstrikes targeting the al Ghab plain, about 25 kilometers northeast of Hama City, possibly to interdict reinforcements as opposition forces advanced south and seized towns. Regime and Russian forces continued airstrikes in opposition-controlled areas of northwest Syria on December 3.

Opposition forces have advanced within five kilometers of Hama City and likely seized key defensive terrain in the area. Regime forces withdrew from Qomhana—a village immediately north of Hama City—and Zine al Abdine hill, which overlooks Hama City. The SAA previously established a first line of defense for Hama City on Zine al Abdine hill, which opposition forces then targeted with drone strikes. The withdrawal of regime forces will almost certainly cede this hill to opposition forces. Opposition forces announced that they also captured the second hill overlooking Hama City, Jabal Kafra. Opposition forces appear to remain outside Hama City at the time of this writing. Opposition forces fired drones targeting SAA tanks near the northern entrance to the city, however. The Syrian Defense Ministry claimed on December 3 that it sent “large reinforcements” to Hama City to counter the expected attack on the city.

Opposition forces’ capture of Hama City would facilitate successive campaigns, such as an effort to take Homs City. The fall of Hama would enable opposition forces to continue to move south into Homs Province. Syrian social media users have reported that pro-regime forces have begun establishing defensive lines in Homs City and forcibly conscripting youths into the SAA. Maintaining regime control of Homs City is vital to Iranian-backed efforts to transport materiel from Iran and Iraq to Lebanese Hezbollah.

Hama City is also a critical node connecting Damascus and southern Syria to regime- and Russian-controlled coastal areas. Tartous and Latakia provinces are long-time Assad strongholds that risk being isolated from the rest of regime-held territory. The Russian evacuation of naval assets from Tartous and the reported deployment of additional Russian forces to Syria suggest that Moscow is worried that opposition forces may advance southward to Hama City and threaten the Tartous base.

Key Takeaways:

• Northwestern Syria: Syrian opposition forces have continued to advance rapidly and pushed through regime defensive lines in the northern Hama countryside. Opposition forces have advanced within five kilometers of Hama City and likely seized key defensive terrain in the area.

• Eastern Syria: The US-backed SDF launched an offensive to seize regime-controlled territory in Deir ez Zor Province. The fighting in the area risks drawing in the US forces deployed in the area to fighting the Islamic State.

• Iran: Iran appears to be trying to coordinate with Iraq and Russia to support the Syrian regime against Syrian opposition forces. The most senior Iranian military officer, Mohammad Bagheri, held separate phone calls with Iraqi and Russian officials to discuss supporting Bashar al Assad.

• Gaza Strip: Hamas and Fatah agreed to form an independent civilian committee to manage post-war governance in the Gaza Strip. Hamas will almost certainly try to infiltrate or subvert whatever non-Hamas government emerges in the strip in order to ultimately control it.

• Lebanon: The IDF conducted over a dozen airstrikes across Lebanon in response to Lebanese Hezbollah firing rockets into Israeli-controlled Shebaa Farms. Israel and Hezbollah have accused one another of violating the ceasefire.

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ISW–CTP has launched a new interactive control of terrain map representing our medium confidence assessment of the ongoing Syrian opposition offensive in northwestern Syria that began on November 27. We will continue to refine this control of terrain (CoT) assessment over the coming days, weeks, and months to increase our confidence levels. 

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