Johanna Moore, Alexandra Braverman, Annika Ganzev and Nick Carl

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Click here to view ISW–CTP's Gaza Control-of-Terrain map and here for our interactive map of the ongoing opposition offensive in Syria.

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The Bashar al Assad regime faces imminent collapse. The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) appears to have already collapsed itself, as its units have fled repeatedly from advancing opposition forces across the country. The SAA is combat ineffective and has yet to present a meaningful defense against the advancing opposition. The opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) have exploited the collapse of the SAA by advancing further southward and taking control of Homs City, which is the last major obstacle before Damascus. Various opposition groups have similarly taken control of large swaths of central and southern Syria and begun advancing into the southern and eastern outskirts of Damascus. The Assad regime appears to only control parts of Damascus and the western Syrian coast at the time of this writing. Syrian President Bashar al Assad has been entirely absent through the crisis and has refrained from making any public address. Some unverified reports have suggested that Assad has fled, possibly to Iran.

Iran appears unwilling to intervene militarily at any meaningful scale to support the Assad regime at this time. Iranian-backed forces have avoided engaging opposition forces almost entirely. The New York Times reported that an internal Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) memo acknowledged the growing likelihood that the Assad regime will collapse. It is far from clear, moreover, that Iran could mobilize the forces necessary to save Assad at this point anyway. Iran has launched an emergency evacuation of its diplomatic staff and military officers from Damascus. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called for political dialogue with the opposition, reflecting heightened Iranian concerns about the longevity of the Assad regime. This Iranian concern and inaction come amid reports that Russia is similarly unwilling to intervene in support of Assad.

Key Takeaways:

• Syria: The Bashar al Assad regime faces imminent collapse. The SAA already appears to have collapsed itself. Iran and Russia appear unwilling to intervene militarily at a meaningful scale in support of Assad.

• Syria: Opposition groups took control of large swaths of Daraa, Homs, Quneitra, and Suwayda provinces. These forces then began advancing toward Damascus from its southern and northeastern flanks.

• Syria: The US-backed SDF clashed with the Turkish-backed SNA east of Aleppo City. The SDF separately expanded its control of formerly regime-held territory around the Euphrates River in eastern Syria.

Click Here to Read the Full Report

ISW–CTP has launched an interactive control of terrain map of the ongoing Syrian opposition offensive in northwestern Syria that began on November 27. It represents our medium confidence assessment. We will continue to refine this control of terrain (CoT) assessment over the coming days, weeks, and months to increase our confidence levels. 

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