Andie Parry, Carolyn Moorman, Ria Reddy, Ben Rezaei, Siddhant Kishore, Ben Schmida, Katherine Wells, and Brian Carter



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Confessionalist-motivated armed clashes spread to additional Druze majority communities near Damascus on April 29 and 30. Tensions initially rose between the Druze community and Muslims after an audio in which a Druze sheikh allegedly insulted the Prophet Mohammad circulated on social media on April 28. The General Security Forces and Defense Ministry deployed forces to Sahnaya and Ashrafieh Sahnaya to address "outlaw" attacks that targeted both Druze civilians and transitional government forces manning checkpoints. Druze militias also deployed to restore security in the towns. At least 16 General Security Forces died in the small arms and mortar attacks conducted at least in part by local Druze militias. At least one Druze fighting with the transitional government through the Men of Dignity faction died in the clashes. There were also reports that some local Druze and government forces fought together against attacking Sunni extremists, however, which illustrates the complexity of the situation and diversity of the actors involved. Syrian Defense Ministry forces withdrew from Ashrafiyeh after search and cordon operations ended with several arrests on April 30.

Key Takeaways:

• Violence in Syria: Confessionalist-motivated armed clashes spread to additional Druze majority communities near Damascus on April 29 and 30. Confessionalist violence in Rif Dimashq may discourage minority groups, including the Syrian Druze, from disarming and integrating into the state. CTP-ISW will provide additional analysis on Israeli actions in Syria related to the Druze on May 1.

• Iraqi Election Preparations: Iran reportedly urged unity amongst Iranian-backed Iraqi political leaders ahead of the Iraqi parliamentary elections in November 2025, likely to improve the likelihood that Iranian-backed parties will maintain control of the Iraqi government. Iran likely shares Iraqi concerns that Sadr’s non-participation in the upcoming elections will cause instability, but hopes that the Shia Coordination Framework's unity will overcome Sadr’s popularity.

• US-Iran Talks: Iran and the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) will hold talks in Rome on May 2. Iran likely aims to coordinate with the E3 on snapback sanctions ahead of the fourth round of US-Iran talks in Rome on May 3.

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