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[ISW] 러시아의 공세 캠페인 평가, 2025년 6월 28일

by Summa posted Jun 29, 2025
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```html 주요 내용 요약

핵심 내용:

  • 우크라이나군은 6월 26일부터 28일까지 러시아 군사 기반 시설과 방위 산업 기지(DIB) 시설에 일련의 공격을 가했습니다.
  • 러시아의 실험적인 Grom-1 미사일 폭탄 배치와 Shahed 생산량 증가 노력은 우크라이나의 방공망을 압도하고 최대 피해를 입히기 위해 우크라이나에 대한 러시아의 공격 전술을 적응시키려는 지속적인 노력의 일환입니다.
  • 우크라이나군은 리만 인근에서 진격했습니다. 러시아군은 노보파블리우카 인근에서 진격했습니다.

분류:

군사 분석, 우크라이나 전쟁, 전황 보고

관련 주요 국가:

  • 우크라이나
  • 러시아
  • (추가적으로) 지원국 (예: 미국, EU 국가 등, 기사에 명시되지 않았으므로 생략)

향후 전망:

러시아는 공격 전술을 지속적으로 조정하여 우크라이나의 방어 능력을 시험하고 피해를 극대화하려 할 것입니다. 우크라이나는 반격 작전을 지속하고, 서방 국가의 지원을 바탕으로 방어력을 강화할 것으로 예상됩니다. 양측의 국지적인 공세와 방어전이 지속될 것으로 보이며, 전쟁의 장기화 가능성이 높습니다. Shahed 생산량 증가는 러시아가 장거리 타격 능력을 유지하려는 시도로 해석됩니다. "DIB"는 방위 산업 기지를 의미합니다.

```

[원문]

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment

Olivia Gibson, Daria Novikov, Christina Harward, Angelica Evans, Jennie Olmsted, Jessica Sobieski, William Runkel, and Frederick W. Kagan



June 28, 2025, 3:15 pm ET 

Click here to view our Russia-Ukraine interactive maps.


Click here to view our special reports since 2025.

Click here to read the biweekly "Russian Occupation Update."


Click here to read the weekly "Russian Force Generation and Adaptations Update."

Ukrainian forces conducted a series of strikes against Russian military infrastructure and defense industrial base (DIB) facilities from June 26 to 28. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reported on June 28 that the SBU conducted a drone strike that destroyed a Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system and three combat helicopters — Mi-8, Mi-26, and Mi-28 — at the Kirovske Air Base in occupied Crimea on the night of June 27 and 28. The SBU noted that the strike also caused a secondary explosion at the airfield. A local Crimean source reported on June 28 that the strike caused five to six explosions and likely damaged an ammunition depot, warehouses, and air defense facilities, and set at least one combat helicopter on fire. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on June 27 that Ukrainian Special Forces and the SBU struck the Marinovka Air Base in Volgograd Oblast on the night of June 26 and 27 and damaged four Su-34 aircraft and a technical maintenance facility. The Ukrainian General Staff is conducting ongoing battle damage assessments (BDA). An unspecified intelligence source told Ukrainian outlet Suspilne on June 28 that Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) conducted several drone strikes targeting facilities linked to the 120th arsenal of the Russian General Staff's Main Directorate (GRU) in Bryansk Oblast and that Ukrainian authorities are conducting BDA. An unspecified intelligence source reported on June 26 that the GUR conducted a drone strike against a fuel and lubricants depot located at the GRU's 1061st MTZ Center in Bryansk Oblast on the night of June 26 and 27. Residents reported heavy gunfire and a series of explosions and noted that the oil depot was on fire.


Russia’s deployment of an experimental Grom-1 missile-bomb and likely efforts to increase its Shahed production are part of ongoing efforts to adapt Russian strike packages against Ukraine to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and cause maximum damage. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration Head Serhiy Lysak reported on June 28 that Ukrainian air defenses downed a Russian Grom-1 hybrid missile-bomb on the outskirts of Dnipro City. A local Ukrainian air defender in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast told Ukrainian outlet Suspilne on June 28 that Russian forces may have deployed an experimental KAB guided glide bomb as part of ongoing efforts to increase the range of KAB bombs. The local source stated that Russia has long used jet engines on the bomb to increase its range and likely used a bomb with a lighter warhead against Dnipro City to decrease the weight and increase the range of the bomb. The source also stated that Russian forces may have launched the bomb from a plane as close to Dnipro City as possible. Ukrainian political scientist and design engineer at satellite and rocket design enterprise Pivdnenne Design Office Oleksandr Kochetkov told Suspilne on June 28 that Russia created the Grom-1 as part of an effort to increase the range and accuracy of KAB bombs in order to preserve Russian aircraft that launch the bombs. Kochetkov stated that Grom-1 is a hybrid of a glide bomb and the Kh-38 air-to-air missile and uses the Kh-38 missile’s engine, which gives the bomb a range of 100 to 150 kilometers. Kochetkov noted that Russian forces used the Grom-1 possibly for the first time in August 2024 during a strike against Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, and that Russia is not yet mass producing Grom-1 missile-bombs.


Ukrainian outlet New Voice assessed on June 27 that satellite imagery from early October 2024 and June 2025 shows that Russia is expanding its Shahed factory in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (SEZ) near Yelabuga, Republic of Tatarstan. The imagery shows that Russia has built four new sites at the Alabuga SEZ spanning about 163 hectares between October 2024 and June 2025, and that another 30-hectare site is currently under construction. New Voice reported that the new construction includes dormitories for factory workers and that Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) previously assessed in June 2025 that laborers are Russia's main need to increase its drone production. New Voice noted that the GUR reported on June 21 that Russia produces up to 170 Shahed and decoy drones daily and that production rates may increase to 190 drones per day by the end of 2025. Japanese outlet NHK reported on June 19, citing unspecified Western and Russian diplomatic sources, that North Korea is “considering” sending 25,000 workers to drone production facilities at the Alabuga SEZ, and dormitory construction may be related to this possible influx of workers in the future.


Key Takeaways:


  • Ukrainian forces conducted a series of strikes against Russian military infrastructure and defense industrial base (DIB) facilities from June 26 to 28.


  • Russia’s deployment of an experimental Grom-1 missile-bomb and likely efforts to increase its Shahed production are part of ongoing efforts to adapt Russian strike packages against Ukraine to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and cause maximum damage.


  • Ukrainian forces advanced near Lyman. Russian forces advanced near Novopavlivka.

Click Here to Read the Full Update

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The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation's ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives.

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