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[ISW] 러시아 공세 캠페인 평가, 2025년 8월 25일

by Summa posted Aug 26, 2025
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```html 주요 내용 요약

주요 내용 요약

다음은 보고서의 주요 내용을 요약한 것입니다.

  • 우크라이나군은 도브로필랴 동쪽과 북동쪽으로 러시아군의 진격을 계속 압박하고 있습니다.
  • 러시아 군 지휘부는 러시아의 침투 전술이 이 지역에서 지속적인 거점을 확보하는 데 실패한 후, 도브로필랴 방향으로의 침투 시도를 포기한 것으로 알려졌습니다.
  • 러시아 검찰총장 이고르 크라스노프가 러시아 연방 최고 법원장이 될 가능성이 높습니다. 이는 조사위원회(슬레드콤) 위원장 알렉산더 바스트리킨이 이 자리를 맡으라는 크렘린의 제안을 거절한 데 따른 것입니다.
  • 러시아 당국은 최근 쿠르스크주 부지사 대행 블라디미르 바자로프를 체포했습니다. 이는 러시아 국경 보안 실패에 대한 책임을 지역 관리들에게 전가하려는 크렘린의 지속적인 노력의 일환일 가능성이 높습니다.
  • 우크라이나의 서방 파트너들은 미국 무기 구매 및 공동 생산 벤처를 포함하여 우크라이나에 대한 군사 지원을 지속적으로 제공하고 있습니다.
  • 우크라이나군은 최근 수미주 북부와 리만, 포크로프스크 인근에서 진격했습니다. 러시아군은 최근 쿠피얀스크, 리만, 토레츠크, 노보파블리우카, 벨리코미하일리우카, 그리고 자포로지예주 서부에서 진격했습니다.

최신 자료 및 관련 링크

다음은 위 내용과 관련된 최신 자료 및 링크입니다.

  • Institute for the Study of War (ISW) - 러시아 공격 작전 평가, 2024년 5월 20일 (ISW - Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 20, 2024)

    ISW는 러시아의 우크라이나 전황을 매일 분석하여 보고서를 발표합니다. 위의 요약 내용과 관련된 러시아군의 진격, 우크라이나군의 반격, 러시아 내부의 상황 변화 등을 심층적으로 다루고 있습니다. (ISW는 우크라이나 전쟁 관련 가장 신뢰할 수 있는 정보원 중 하나입니다.)

  • Kyiv Post (키이우 포스트)

    우크라이나의 주요 영자 신문으로, 전쟁 관련 최신 뉴스와 분석을 제공합니다. 우크라이나군의 활동, 서방의 지원, 러시아 내부의 상황 등을 포함한 광범위한 정보를 얻을 수 있습니다. (Kyiv Post는 독립적인 보도를 추구하며, 다양한 관점을 제공합니다.)

  • BBC News 코리아 (BBC News Korean)

    BBC News는 국제 뉴스를 다루는 신뢰할 수 있는 언론사입니다. BBC 코리아 페이지에서는 우크라이나 전쟁 관련 최신 뉴스와 분석을 한국어로 제공합니다. (BBC는 객관적인 보도를 지향하며, 다양한 정보를 제공합니다.)

  • Reuters (로이터 통신)

    로이터 통신은 전 세계적으로 널리 사용되는 뉴스 제공 업체입니다. 우크라이나 전쟁과 관련된 국제 정세 및 사건에 대한 최신 정보를 제공하며, 러시아군의 행동, 우크라이나에 대한 군사 지원 등 다양한 측면을 다룹니다. (Reuters는 객관적이고 정확한 보도를 지향합니다.)

  • VOA Korea (VOA 코리아)

    VOA 코리아는 미국의 소리 방송의 한국어 서비스입니다. 우크라이나 전쟁과 관련한 다양한 뉴스와 분석을 제공하며, 미국의 지원, 국제 사회의 반응, 전쟁의 전개 상황 등을 다룹니다. (VOA는 미국의 시각을 반영하며, 객관적인 보도를 지향합니다.)

```

[원문]

August 25, 2025

Information Cutoff: 8:15 pm ET

Grace Mappes, Jennie Olmsted, Christina Harward, Justin Young, Olivia Gibson, and Kateryna Stepanenko


TOPLINES

Ukrainian forces continue to pressure the Russian penetration east and northeast of Dobropillya. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on August 25 that Ukrainian forces seized Nove Shakhove (east of Dobropillya) and Zapovidne (southeast of Dobropillya and the western bound of the base of the Russian penetration). Mashovets stated that Ukrainian forces pushed out Russian forces from positions near the T-0514 Dobropillya-Kramatorsk highway and south of Vesele (northeast of Dobropillya). Mashovets added that Ukrainian forces have almost completely cleared Kucheriv Yar (east of Dobropillya). Mashovets' August 25 report follows reports from Ukrainian military officials since August 15 that Ukrainian forces continue to clear settlements at both the northern extent of the Russian penetration and along the base of the penetration. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on August 24 that Ukrainian forces had seized Volodymyrivka, (southeast of Dobropillya and the eastern bound of the base of the Russian penetration), and Ukrainian advances along the western and eastern bases of the penetration indicate that Russian forces are failing to expand the width of the penetration to the extent necessary to sustain the depth of the penetration. Mashovets reported on August 25 that these Ukrainian counterattacks threatened to encircle elements of the Russian 51st Combined Arms Army ([CAA], formerly 1st Donetsk People's Republic Army Corps [DNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) operating within the penetration north of the Zapovidne-Mayak-Volodymyrivka line. Mashovets reported that the command of the 51st CAA created an assault group that aimed to break through Ukrainian forces and reach the Russian forces within the penetration. Mashovets added that elements of the 1st Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA) had regrouped and attempted to defend against Ukrainian counterattacks at the western part of the base near Zapovidne. Mashovets had reported on August 18 that elements of the Russian 8th CAA (SMD) had been attempting to outflank and threaten Ukrainian forces counterattacking at the eastern part of the base near Volodymyrivka. These various recent reports of Ukrainian advances in the area, coupled with the lack of reporting about Russian advances or successful reinforcement missions within the penetration, indicate that the efforts of both the 51st CAA and 8th CAA to defend the base of the penetration may have failed at this time.


The Russian military command has reportedly given up efforts to exploit the penetration toward Dobropillya, after Russia's infiltration tactics appear to have been unsuccessful in establishing enduring positions within this penetration. Mashovets stated on August 25 that the command of the 51st CAA is now preparing for assaults directly against Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk), indicating that the 51st CAA has reverted back to its original plan following a brief shift in focus on exploiting the penetration northeast of Dobropillya. Mashovets' report and the recent Ukrainian advances within the penetration indicate that Russian forces likely have not established enduring positions within the salient. Russian milbloggers' reporting about the penetration near Dobropillya has also significantly decreased in recent days and shifted back to focusing on activity north, east, and southwest of Pokrovsk instead — further suggesting that Russian forces have been unsuccessful in consolidating and exploiting the penetration and are shifting their focus back on Pokrovsk directly. Russian milbloggers have warned in the past week that the penetration near Dobropillya was too narrow relative to its depth, creating vulnerabilities to Ukrainian counterattacks and interdiction. Russian milbloggers also previously warned that Russian forces had to widen the penetration's flanks to sustain the penetration, which Russian forces have failed to do so far. ISW previously assessed that Russian infiltration tactics and a low manpower density along the front in the Pokrovsk direction seemed to have allowed Russian forces to temporarily restore limited, tactical maneuver east and southeast of Dobropillya, but Russia's inability to establish logistics to support and reinforce the forward units operating within the penetration have degraded Russia's ability to widen and exploit the penetration.


Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov is likely to become the Chairperson of the Russian Supreme Court, reportedly after Investigative Committee (Sledkom) Chairperson Alexander Bastrykin refused the Kremlin's offer to assume this position. The Russian Higher Qualification Collegium of Judges (which oversees the selection of candidates for judicial positions) announced on August 25 that it completed accepting applications for the vacant position of Chairperson of the Supreme Court and that Krasnov was the sole candidate who submitted an application. Moscow-based business newspaper Vedomosti reported on August 21 that the Higher Qualification Collegium of Judges cancelled the required qualification examination for the position due to a lack of candidates and reported on August 22 that Russian President Vladimir Putin awarded Krasnov the title Honored Lawyer of the Russian Federation, exempting Krasnov from the qualification examination. A Russian insider source claimed on August 25 that Bastrykin, whom Vedomosti previously reported was a candidate for the Supreme Court vacancy, recently refused the position for unknown reasons during a closed-door meeting with Putin. Bastrykin reportedly asked to remain in his position at the Russian Investigative Committee for another year before moving to become the Plenipotentiary Representative of the Russian President in the Northwestern Federal Okrug. Putin previously allowed Bastrykin to remain in office past the age of 70 in September 2024, and ISW assessed on August 20 that the Kremlin may have attempted to appoint Bastrykin to serve as Chairperson of the Supreme Court to open the Sledkom chairperson position to a younger official without firing or retiring Bastrykin.[13] The Russian insider source claimed that the current plenipotentiary representative, Alexander Gutsan, will succeed Krasnov as Prosecutor General and that current Minister of Justice Konstantin Chuychenko will replace Bastrykin as Investigative Committee chairperson. Krasnov has held his position as Prosecutor General since 2020 and is notably 49 years old; and Chuychenko is 60 years old — significantly younger than the nearly-72-year-old Bastrykin, reflecting the Kremlin’s introduction of younger officials to senior positions.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Ukrainian forces continue to pressure the Russian penetration east and northeast of Dobropillya.


  • The Russian military command has reportedly given up efforts to exploit the penetration toward Dobropillya, after Russia's infiltration tactics appear to have been unsuccessful in establishing enduring positions within this penetration.


  • Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov is likely to become the Chairperson of the Russian Supreme Court, reportedly after Investigative Committee (Sledkom) Chairperson Alexander Bastrykin refused the Kremlin's offer to assume this position.


  • Russian authorities recently detained Acting Kursk Oblast Vice Governor Vladimir Bazarov, likely as part of the Kremlin’s continued efforts to scapegoat local officials for Russian border security failures.


  • Ukraine’s Western partners continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including through the purchase of US weapons and joint production ventures.


  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Lyman and Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, and Velykomykhailivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

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