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[ISW] 이란 업데이트, 2025년 8월 25일

by Summa posted Aug 26, 2025
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```html 주요 내용 요약

주요 내용 요약

  • 이란: 최고 국가 안보 위원회(SNSC) 사무총장 알리 라리자니는 8월 22일 최고 지도자 알리 하메네이의 웹사이트에서 인터뷰를 가졌으며, 이란의 전후 방어와 미래 분쟁에 대한 고려 사항에 대해 논의했습니다.
  • 이란: 라리자니는 서방 국가들의 이란에 대한 국제적 압력을 비판했으며, 12일 전쟁 동안 국제원자력기구(IAEA)와 핵확산 금지 조약(NPT)이 이란에 대해 "편파적"이었다고 비난했습니다.
  • 레바논: Axios에 익명의 소식통 두 명에 따르면, 미국은 8월 21일 이스라엘에게 "긴급하지 않은" 군사 작전을 대폭 줄이고, 레바논 내 5개의 영구 주둔지 중 한 곳에서 철수할 것을 요청했습니다.
  • 레바논: 헤즈볼라 관계자들은 레바논 정부가 헤즈볼라 무장을 해제하려 할 경우 잠재적인 대결이 있을 수 있다고 계속 경고해 왔습니다. 이는 레바논 내부 분쟁에 대한 정부의 우려를 활용하여 헤즈볼라 무장 해제 계획을 지연시키거나 되돌리려는 시도로 보입니다.

최신 관련 자료 및 링크

참고: 위 링크들은 각 기관의 공식 웹사이트 또는 신뢰할 수 있는 뉴스 매체에서 제공하는 정보이며, 최신 정보와 다를 수 있습니다. 링크가 제대로 작동하는지 확인하였으나, 웹사이트 구조 변경 등으로 인해 링크가 변경될 수 있습니다.

```

[원문]

August 25, 2025

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

Avery Borens, Ben Rezaei, Carolyn Moorman, Adham Fattah, Ben Schmida, Katherine Wells, Johanna Moore, and Annika Ganzeveld

TOPLINES

Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ali Larijani gave an interview on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s website on August 22 in which he discussed Iran’s post-war defense and considerations for future conflicts. Larijani warned that adversaries may seek new opportunities to attack Iran and that Iran must correct its defensive flaws and rebuild deterrence. Israel’s strikes during the 12 Day War severely damaged Iranian nuclear and military facilities and killed nuclear scientists and senior commanders. The Israeli campaign and US strikes demonstrated Iran’s defensive gaps and inability to deter its adversaries. Larijani stated that the Defense Council works as a subsidiary body tasked exclusively with military readiness and fixing deficiencies in the armed forces. The SNSC established the Defense Council on August 3 to address systemic operational failures during the Israel-Iran War and to take “rapid, balanced, and coordinated” steps against future threats.” Larijani stated that Iran is focusing on improving air defense and radar systems and strengthening its missile force. Larijani added that Iran relies mainly on domestic production but also buys some military equipment from abroad. Iran previously sought to strengthen defense cooperation with China following the war, including by showing interest in acquiring PRC systems such as the J-10 fighter jet and AWACS to compensate for wartime losses and upgrade air defense capabilities. Larijani also highlighted that Iran must recognize the war has not ended but has only paused.


Larijani reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to support the Axis of Resistance and framed resistance groups as natural responses to “foreign aggression.” Larijani stressed that Iran considers the Axis of Resistance a genuine and strategic asset. Iran previously used the Axis as a key deterrent against the United States and Israel, but the Axis of Resistance has been badly degraded over the past two years of fighting with Israel. Larijani compared Iran’s support for regional allies to US support for Israel and warned that abandoning them would be “political insanity.” Larijani rejected the idea that Hezbollah or other groups burden Iran and insisted that they both assist Iran and rely on Iranian support. Larijani characterized the relationship with Hezbollah and other partner groups as “brothers” rather than “subordinates.” This is consistent with CTP-ISW’s longstanding assessment that the Axis of Resistance is an unconventional alliance that Iran leads. Some groups in the Axis are proxies, while Iran exerts more limited influence over other groups. Larijani’s inaugural visits to Lebanon and Iraq attempted to demonstrate that Iran has not abandoned its partners in the Axis, but Larijani offered very little visible, tangible support during those visits.


Larijani criticized international pressure on Iran from Western countries and accused the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of "partisanship” against Iran during the 12 Day War. Larijani accused IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi of giving a “blank check” to the United States and Israel during the 12 Day War. Larijani claimed that Grossi “completely gave up and surrendered” and called the agency’s silence after Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities “truly disgraceful.” Larijani questioned the value of continued cooperation with the IAEA but stopped short of calling for withdrawal from the NPT, saying instead that the treaty has had “no value” for Iran. Iranian officials repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the NPT if the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) triggers the snapback sanction mechanism at the end of August. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) snapback mechanism allows JCPOA signatories to reimpose UN Security Council sanctions on Iran in the event of “significant non-performance” of JCPOA commitments. The snapback mechanism expires on October 18, 2025, but the E3 would need to initiate the snapback process at the end of August in order to meet the October 18 deadline. Iran and the E3 previously discussed extending the snapback deadline during a July 25 Istanbul meeting. An extension would require a new UNSC resolution with at least nine votes in favor of the resolution and no vetoes from permanent UNSC members. Larijani rejected European proposals to extend the UN Security Council snapback deadline, however. He said that the JCPOA fixed a ten-year limit to the snapback sanctions that cannot be altered. He added that any extensions are a form of “cheating.” Larijani added that Iran will never abandon diplomacy but stressed that negotiations must be “real” and not a pretext for pressure. He also warned that Iran will not accept “submission.” Iranian officials previously demanded preconditions, including assurances of no further strikes, to continue nuclear talks with the West.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Iran: Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ali Larijani gave an interview on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s website on August 22 in which he discussed Iran’s post-war defense and considerations for future conflicts.


  • Iran: Larijani criticized international pressure on Iran from Western countries and accused the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of "partisanship” against Iran during the 12 Day War.


  • Lebanon: The United States reportedly asked Israel on August 21 to significantly reduce “non-urgent” military operations and withdraw from one of its five permanent positions in Lebanon, according to two unspecified sources speaking to Axios.


  • Lebanon: Hezbollah officials have continued to warn the Lebanese government about potential confrontation if the Lebanese government attempts to disarm Hezbollah, which is likely an effort to leverage the government’s concerns about internal conflict in Lebanon to delay or reverse the government’s plan to disarm Hezbollah.


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