Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, Karolina Hird, Nicole Wolkov,
George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan
January 23, 2024, 8pm ET
see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to
see ISW’s 3D control-of-terrain topographic map of Ukraine. The use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for accessing this data-heavy
to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline.
Western states reiterated their support for Ukraine and their commitment to the development
of Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB) at the 18th Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on January 23. Ukrainian Defense
Minister Rustem Umerov stated that Belgium plans to provide Ukraine with 611 million euros (about $663.4 million) worth of military aid in 2024. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reiterated that the US believes that Ukraine is appropriately using military
aid and stated that the United States continues to monitor and account for US security assistance delivered to Ukraine. Austin stated explicitly that the US has seen “no credible evidence of the misuse or illicit diversion of American equipment provided to
Ukraine.” The US Department of Defense (DoD) Office of the Inspector General published a report on January 11 that stated that the failure to document certain aid provided to Ukraine in a timely manner was largely due to DoD limitations but that did not suggest
that any of the material air had been misappropriated. Austin reiterated US support for strengthening Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB). Umerov stated that Ukraine is ready to co-invest in technologies and joint production with interested companies in
order to facilitate breakthroughs on the battlefield with ”innovation and significant technological progress.” Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) Press and Information Department Head Illarion Pavlyuk stated that Ukraine and unspecified officials discussed
ways to increase weapons and ammunition production, the creation of an artillery production coalition, and the development of Ukraine’s air force and air defenses.
NATO concluded contracts on January 23 for the purchase of over 200,000 artillery
shells, likely either to allow NATO to send additional aid to Ukraine or to replenish NATO stockpiles. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and General
Manager of the NATO Support and Procurement Agency Stacy Cummings signed contracts, reportedly with French company Nexter and German company Junghans Defense, on January 23 for the purchase of about 220,000 155mm artillery shells worth $1.2 billion. Stoltenberg
stated that the war in Ukraine has become a “battle for ammunition,” so it is important that NATO refill its stocks as the alliance continues to support Ukraine. It is unclear if the contracts are meant to allow NATO to send additional ammunition to Ukraine
or to fill NATO’s own ammunition stockpiles. Western security assistance remains vital for Ukraine as any slow reduction or sudden collapse of Western aid will very likely eliminate Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and could lead to the Russian military
capturing significantly more territory in Ukraine, bringing Russian forward bases closer to the borders of NATO member states. The replenishment of NATO stockpiles is also an important endeavor, as ISW also continues to assess that NATO rearmament is necessary
to deter - and if necessary defeat - any future Russian attack on NATO’s eastern flank, given that Kremlin officials have increasingly threatened NATO member states, and Kremlin-affiliated actors appear to be attempting to sow instability and set information
conditions for possible future aggressive Russian actions against NATO members and other post-Soviet states.
- Western states reiterated their support for Ukraine and their commitment to the development of Ukraine’s defense
industrial base (DIB) at the 18th Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on January 23.
- NATO concluded contracts on January 23 for the purchase over 200,000 artillery shells, likely either to allow
NATO to send additional aid to Ukraine or to replenish NATO stockpiles.
- Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are struggling to compensate for Ukrainian drone and rear-area
strikes at the level necessary to break out of positional warfare.
- Russian forces conducted a series of missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of January 22-23 with a new
strike package likely meant to penetrate Ukrainian air defenses.
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and Palestinian
National Authority Foreign Minister Riyad al Maliki as part of efforts to deepen Russian relations with Middle Eastern actors.
- The Kremlin’s domestic policy focus on the “Year of the Family” in 2024 is likely in part meant to address Russia’s
ongoing demographic crisis.
- The Russian Baltic Fleet is conducting a coastal missile exercise likely to posture against ongoing NATO Steadfast
Defender 2024 exercises.
- The Kremlin may intend to use the 2024 Russian presidential election as a referendum on Russia’s war in Ukraine.
- The Russian legal system is expanding the prosecution of extortion cases to broadly suppress sources of dissent.
- Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City amid continued positional
engagements along the entire line of contact on January 23.
- Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) government chairperson Yevgeny Solntsev announced on January 23 that a branch
of the Russian Nakhimov Naval School in occupied Mariupol will start instructing its first cadets on September 1, 2024.
- Russian occupation authorities are likely deliberately misrepresenting population statistics in occupied areas
to encourage people to relocate to occupied settlements.
Donate online or
by sending a check to the Institute for the Study of War at 1400 16th Street NW, Suite #515, Washington, DC, 20036. Please consider including the Institute for the Study of War in your estate plans.
ISW is a tax-exempt organization under section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Donations are tax-deductible
to the extent permitted by law.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy
research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation's ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging
threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives.
## 주요 요점: * 서방 국가들은 1월 23일 독일 람슈타인 공군기지에서 열린 제18차 우크라이나 방위 연락 그룹에서 우크라이나에 대한 지원과 우크라이나 국방 산업 기반(DIB) 개발에 대한 의지를 재확인했습니다. 우크라이나 국방부 루스템 우메로프 장관은 벨기에가 2024년에 우크라이나에 6억 1,100만 유로(약 6억 6,340만 달러) 상당의 군사 지원을 제공할 계획이라고 밝혔습니다. 미국 국방부 로이드 오스틴 장관은 미국이 우크라이나가 군사 지원을
적절하게 사용하고 있다고 믿으며 미국은 우크라이나에 제공된 미국 안보 지원을 계속 모니터링하고 설명하고 있다고 말했습니다. 오스틴은 미국이 "우크라이나에 제공된 미국 장비의 오용이나 불법 유용에 대한 신뢰할 수 있는 증거를 보지 못했다"고 명확히 밝혔습니다. 미국 국방부(DoD) 감찰관실은 1월 11일에 보고서를 발표하여 우크라이나에 제공된 일부 지원을 적시에 문서화하지 못한 것은 주로 국방부의 한계 때문이지만, 제공된 물자가 오용되었다는 것을 시사하지는
않는다고 밝혔습니다. 오스틴은 우크라이나의 국방 산업 기반(DIB)을 강화하는 것을 지원한다고 거듭 강조했습니다. 우메로프는 우크라이나가 "혁신과 상당한 기술적 진보"로 전장에서 돌파구를 마련하기 위해 관심 있는 기업들과 기술 및 공동 생산에 공동 투자할 준비가 되어 있다고 말했습니다. 우크라이나 국방부(MoD) 언론 및 정보부장 일라리온 파블리욱은 우크라이나와 미상의 관리들이 무기와 탄약 생산 증가, 포병 생산 연합 창설, 우크라이나 공군 및 방공 개발
방안에 대해 논의했다고 밝혔습니다. * NATO는 1월 23일에 20만 발 이상의 포병 탄약을 구매하기 위한 계약을 체결했는데, 이는 NATO가 우크라이나에 추가 지원을 보내거나 NATO 재고를 보충하기 위한 것으로 보입니다. NATO 사무총장 옌스 스톨텐베르그와 NATO 지원 및 조달 기관의 총책임자 스테이시 커밍스는 1