### Key Takeaways: * 러시아 Il-76 군용 수송기가 1월 24일 벨고로드 주에서 추락했습니다. * 러시아 정보 공간 관계자들은 우크라이나 국내 불만을 조장하고 우크라이나에 대한 군사 지원 의지를 약화시키기 위해 Il-76 추락 사고를 이용하고 있습니다. * 러시아 법 집행 기관은 이주민이 벨고로드 주와 자연화 이주민 간의 지속적인 갈등의 배경에서 범죄 활동에 취약하다는 것을 시사하는 외국인 혐오 프로파일링 방법을 법전화하고 있습니다. *
우크라이나 주요 군사 정보국(GUR)은 우크라이나 해커들이 최근 러시아 정보 및 통신 인프라에 사이버 공격을 가했다고 보고했습니다. * NATO 사무총장 옌스 스톨텐베르그는 독일 람슈타인 공군 기지에서 열린 제18차 우크라이나 방위 연락 그룹에서 최근 러시아의 우크라이나 미사일 공격이 우크라이나의 방공을 강화해야 할 필요성을 강조한다고 밝혔습니다. * 러시아와 차드 공무원이 1월 24일 모스크바에서 만나 차드가 아프리카 대륙의 전 프랑스 식민지 중 크렘린의
다음 표적이 될 수 있음을 시사했습니다. * 러시아 국방부(MoD) 통제 아프리카 군단은 1월 24일 아프리카 군단 인원이 부르키나파소에 도착했다고 주장하는 사진을 공개했습니다. * NATO는 1월 24일 Steadfast Defender 2024 훈련이 시작되어 2024년 5월 31일까지 진행될 것이라고 발표했습니다. * 전역에서 위치별 교전이 계속되었습니다. * 체첸 공화국 수장 람잔 카디로프는 체첸 군의 명성을 높이기 위한 노력을 계속하고 있습니다.
* 러시아 점령 당국은 2024년 3월 대선에서 유권자 투표율을 강제하기 위한 조건을 설정하고 있습니다.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, Grace Mappes, Karolina Hird, George Barros, and Frederick
January 24, 2024, 8:20pm ET
see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to
see ISW’s 3D control-of-terrain topographic map of Ukraine. The use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for accessing this data-heavy
to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline.
A Russian Il-76 military transport aircraft crashed in Belgorod Oblast on January 24. Geolocated
footage posted by various Russian sources shows the Il-76 crashing in Yablonovo, Belgorod Oblast (about 50km northeast of Belgorod City). The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that the Il-76 was carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) and was
en route to a pre-arranged POW exchange at the Kolotylivka border-crossing checkpoint between Russia and Ukraine. The Russian MoD accused Ukraine of hitting the plane with two unspecified missiles, killing the 65 POWs, six Russian crew members, and three Russian
military personnel. Senior Russian propagandist and Editor-in-Chief of state-controlled outlet RT Margarita
Simonyan published a list of the names of the Ukrainian POWs supposedly on the flight, but several Russian and Ukrainian sources noted that at least one of the alleged POWs had already been exchanged in a previous POW swap on January 3. Ukrainian officials,
including Ukrainian Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lubinets and the Ukrainian Coordinating Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, immediately responded to the incident by emphasizing that Ukraine is investigating the crash and urged audiences
not to draw premature conclusions about the crash based on unconfirmed reporting. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Spokesperson Andriy Yusov confirmed that a POW exchange was scheduled to take place on January 24 but that the exchange
was no longer taking place and that GUR is investigating the circumstances of the crash. GUR later stated that Ukraine “does not have reliable and comprehensive information about who exactly was on board the plane.” The Ukrainian General Staff did not directly
respond to the incident but emphasized that Russia has conducted 19 missile strikes against Kharkiv Oblast from Belgorod Oblast over the past week and stressed that Ukraine “will continue to take measures to destroy means of delivery” and “control the airspace”
in the Kharkiv-Belgorod border area. Ukrainian outlet Ukrainska Pravda, citing
unspecified sources in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, claimed that the Il-76 was transporting S-300 air-defense missiles, which Russian forces frequently use in strikes against ground targets in Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in
his nightly address on January 24 that Ukraine is working to establish “all clear facts” and that GUR is looking into “the fate of all prisoners.” ISW
offers no assessment of the circumstances of the Il-76 crash at this time and cannot independently verify Russian or Ukrainian statements on the incident.
- A Russian Il-76 military transport aircraft crashed in Belgorod Oblast on January 24.
- Russian information space actors are seizing on the Il-76 crash to sow domestic discontent in Ukraine and undermine
Western will to continue giving military support to Ukraine.
- Russian law enforcement authorities are codifying xenophobic profiling methods suggesting that migrants are predisposed
to criminal activity against the backdrop of continued conflicts between Russian citizens and naturalized migrants.
- The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Ukrainian hackers recently conducted cyberattacks
on Russian intelligence and communications infrastructure.
- NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated during the 18th Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base
in Germany that recent Russian missile strikes against Ukraine underscore the need to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses.
- Russian and Chadian officials met in Moscow on January 24, suggesting that Chad may be the Kremlin’s next target among
former French colonies on the African continent.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) controlled Africa Corps published photos on January 24 claiming to show Africa
Corps personnel arriving in Burkina Faso.
- NATO announced on January 24 that the Steadfast Defender 2024 exercises have started and will run until May 31, 2024.
- Positional engagements continued throughout the theater.
- Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov continues efforts to bolster the reputation of Chechen forces.
- Russian occupation authorities are setting conditions to coerce voter turnout in the upcoming March 2024 presidential
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