메뉴 건너뛰기

군사국방

전황

[ISW] 러시아 공세 캠페인 평가, 2024년 1월 21일

by 맘씨 posted Jan 25, 2024
?

단축키

Prev이전 문서

Next다음 문서

크게 작게 위로 아래로 댓글로 가기 인쇄
?

단축키

Prev이전 문서

Next다음 문서

크게 작게 위로 아래로 댓글로 가기 인쇄

ISW Logo

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment

Support ISW

Angelica Evans, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Christina Harward, Riley Bailey, and Frederick W. Kagan


January 21, 2024, 3:55pm ET

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.


Click here to see ISW’s 3D control-of-terrain topographic map of Ukraine. The use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for accessing this data-heavy tool.


Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline.

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against targets in Leningrad and Tula oblasts, where repeated Ukrainian drone strikes may fix Russian short-range air defense systems defending potentially significant targets along expected flight routes. Ukrainian media, citing unnamed sources within Ukrainian special services, reported that Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes against the Shcheglovsky Val Plant in Tula City, Tula Oblast and the “Novateka” plant and gas terminal near the port of Ust-Luga, Leningrad Oblast on the night of January 20 to 21. The Shcheglovsky Val Plant reportedly manufactures Pantsir-S and Pantsir-S1 air defense systems, and the Ust-Luga complex reportedly processes stable gas condensate into light and heavy naphtha, diesel, kerosene, and naval fuel. Russian sources amplified footage claiming to show explosions in Tula City and Ust-Luga, presumably the results of successful Ukrainian strikes. Geolocated footage published on January 20 shows additional explosions over Smolensk City, indicating possible Ukrainian strikes in the area. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian air defenses destroyed five drones over Tula, Oryol, and Smolensk oblasts. Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a successful drone strike on Russian military facilities in Leningrad Oblast on January 18.


A Russian insider source claimed on January 21 that Russian air defense coverage over Leningrad Oblast is poor and indicated that Russian air defenses in Leningrad Oblast are likely not arrayed to defend against strikes from the south. Russian air defense systems in Leningrad Oblast are most likely positioned to defend against strikes from the northwest and west, as Russia has historically arrayed its air defense in the area to defend against hypothetical NATO attacks. The Russian military is currently reforming the Leningrad Military District (LMD) with the expressed intent to prepare for a potential future conventional war against NATO and may be arranging military assets in a way to posture along the border with NATO members. Ukrainian strikes in Leningrad Oblast may prompt Russian forces to reposition short-range air defense systems along expected flight routes of Ukrainian drones to defend potential targets of strategic value. Russian forces using short-range systems such as the Pantsir may not be able to cover all important potential targets in Leningrad Oblast without bringing additional systems into the area, and continued Ukrainian strikes in deep rear areas in Russia may thus increase pressure on Russia’s air defenses overall.


Key Takeaways:


  • Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against targets in Leningrad and Tula oblasts, where repeated Ukrainian drone strikes may fix Russian short-range air defense systems defending potentially significant targets along expected flight routes.


  • Moldovan authorities accused Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria of numerous violations, including the improper use of drones, while conducting exercises in late December 2023, prompting an information attack by a pro-Kremlin mouthpiece.


  • Russia is likely intensifying relations with North Korea as part of an effort to procure more artillery ammunition from abroad amid Russian munition shortages.


  • Russian forces advanced near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the front.


  • Russian opposition outlet Mobilization News reported on January 21 that likely Russian military commanders are mistreating troops at a training ground in Volgograd Oblast.


  • Russian federal subjects continue to foster patronage networks in occupied Ukraine.

Click here to read the full assessment.

Follow ISW on social media:


Facebook | X | YouTube | Instagram | LinkedIn | Threads | Bluesky


Visit our website: UnderstandingWar.org

Donate online or by sending a check to the Institute for the Study of War at 1400 16th Street NW, Suite #515, Washington, DC, 20036. Please consider including the Institute for the Study of War in your estate plans.


ISW is a tax-exempt organization under section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Donations are tax-deductible to the extent permitted by law.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation's ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives.

The Institute for the Study of War | 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 515, Washington, DC 20036
Unsubscribe help@hearimlaw.onmicrosoft.com
Update Profile | Constant Contact Data Notice
Sent by publications@understandingwar.org powered by
Trusted Email from Constant Contact - Try it FREE today.


[요약]

**Key Takeaways:** - Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against targets in Leningrad and Tula oblasts, where repeated Ukrainian drone strikes may fix Russian short-range air defense systems defending potentially significant targets along expected flight routes. - Moldovan authorities accused Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria of numerous violations, including the improper use of drones, while conducting exercises in late December 2023, prompting an information attack by a pro-Kremlin mouthpiece. - Russia is likely intensifying relations with North Korea as part of an effort to procure more artillery ammunition from abroad amid Russian munition shortages. - Russian forces advanced near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the front. - Russian opposition outlet Mobilization News reported on January 21 that likely Russian military commanders are mistreating troops at a training ground in Volgograd Oblast. - Russian federal subjects continue to foster patronage networks in occupied Ukraine.


  1. [공지] 참조 사이트

    Date2023.12.14 BySumma
    read more
  2. [현지소식] 우크라이나 군대의 드론을 이용한 원격 지뢰 배치 https://ift.tt/Y4UDhbp

    Date2024.01.27 Category전황 By맘씨
    Read More
  3. [국방부] 국방부차관, 동계 입영훈련 중인 학군사관후보생 격려

    Date2024.01.26 Category전황 By맘씨
    Read More
  4. [국방부] 제1차 한-말레이시아 국방부 정책협의회 개최

    Date2024.01.26 Category전황 By맘씨
    Read More
  5. [국방부] 병영식당 개선 위해 국방부와 ㈜더본코리아가 손잡았다!

    Date2024.01.26 Category전황 By맘씨
    Read More
  6. [국방부] 신원식 국방부장관, 코리아 코커스 조 윌슨 미 하원의원 접견

    Date2024.01.26 Category전황 By맘씨
    Read More
  7. [ISW] 러시아 공세 캠페인 평가, 2024년 1월 25일

    Date2024.01.26 Category전황 By맘씨
    Read More
  8. [ISW] 이스라엘-하마스 전쟁(이란) 업데이트, 2024년 1월 25일

    Date2024.01.26 Category전황 By맘씨
    Read More
  9. [ISW] 이스라엘-하마스 전쟁(이란) 업데이트, 2024년 1월 21일

    Date2024.01.26 Category전황 By맘씨
    Read More
  10. [현지소식] 우크라이나군이 운영자의 참여가 필요하지 않은 인공 지능을 갖춘 우크라이나 Saker Scout 드론의 작동을 시연했습니다. https://ift.tt/WDxvkN8

    Date2024.01.25 Category전황 By맘씨
    Read More
  11. [현지소식] 제47기계화보병여단은 브래들리 전투차량, FPV 공격, 정찰 드론 및 보병의 결합된 작전을 사용하여 또 다른 러시아의 공격을 능숙하게 막아냅니다. https://ift.tt/X9kdB4W

    Date2024.01.25 Category전황 By맘씨
    Read More
  12. [현지소식] 가자지구 중앙부에 위치한 이스라엘 방위군 제646예비여단 전투단의 작전 영상 https://ift.tt/0haW1rB

    Date2024.01.25 Category전황 By맘씨
    Read More
  13. [국방부] 경계부대 군인의 시간외근무수당 100시간으로 확대

    Date2024.01.25 Category전황 By맘씨
    Read More
  14. [ISW] 러시아의 공세 캠페인 평가, 2024년 1월 24일

    Date2024.01.25 Category전황 By맘씨
    Read More
  15. 텔레그램 미리보기 테스트

    Date2024.01.25 BySumma
    Read More
  16. [ISW] 이스라엘-하마스 전쟁(이란) 업데이트, 2024년 1월 24일

    Date2024.01.25 Category전황 By맘씨
    Read More
  17. [ISW] 이스라엘-하마스 전쟁(이란) 업데이트, 2024년 1월 23일

    Date2024.01.25 Category전황 By맘씨
    Read More
  18. [ISW] 이스라엘-하마스 전쟁(이란) 업데이트, 2024년 1월 20일

    Date2024.01.25 Category전황 By맘씨
    Read More
  19. [ISW] 러시아 공세 캠페인 평가, 2024년 1월 21일

    Date2024.01.25 Category전황 By맘씨
    Read More
  20. [ISW] 러시아 공세 캠페인 평가, 2024년 1월 20일

    Date2024.01.25 Category전황 By맘씨
    Read More
  21. [ISW] 러시아 공세 캠페인 평가, 2024년 1월 22일

    Date2024.01.25 Category전황 By맘씨
    Read More
Board Pagination Prev 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 ... 18 Next
/ 18
위로