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[ISW] 러시아 공세 캠페인 평가, 2024년 2월 5일

by 맘씨 posted Feb 06, 2024
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[요약]

주요 요점:

  • 미국 상원 협상자들은 2월 4일에 추가 지원 예산안을 발표했는데, 이 법안이 통과되면 우크라이나에 약 600억 달러의 안보 지원이 제공될 것이며, 그 대부분은 미국 기업과 미국 및 동맹국 군대에 제공될 것입니다.

  • 우크라이나 대통령 볼로디미르 젤렌스키는 2월 4일에 우크라이나 군대와 같은 "단일 부문"에만 국한되지 않는 우크라이나 정부 전반에 걸쳐 "일련의 국가 지도자"를 교체해야 한다고 말했습니다.

  • 크렘린은 서방의 논의에서 분할 내러티브를 정상화하려는 시도로 무해하고 관련이 없는 주제를 이용하여 우크라이나의 가상 분할을 촉구하는 수사를 강화하고 있습니다.

  • 서방의 안보 지원이 지연되면서 우크라이나의 포탄 부족이 악화되고 우크라이나가 고가의 서방 대포병 시스템을 사용하는 능력이 저하되고 있습니다.

  • 크렘린은 2024년 3월 대선에서 반전 러시아 대통령 후보인 보리스 나데즈딘이 예상보다 인기가 많아서 출마를 허용하지 않을 수 있습니다.

  • 크렘린은 러시아에서 조용히 민간 기업을 국유화하고 있다고 합니다.

  • 러시아군은 전선 전체에서 계속되는 진지전 속에서 쿠피얀스크, 크레민나, 아브디이프카, 바흐무트 북동쪽에서 확실한 이득을 얻었습니다.

  • 러시아 연방 보안국(FSB)은 FSB 아카데미에서 여성에게 제공되는 과정 목록을 확대할 수 있습니다.

  • 러시아 점령 행정부는 러시아 연방 주체(지역)와의 후원 네트워크를 통해 우크라이나 어린이들에게 러시아 문화와 민족주의를 주입하기 위한 노력을 계속하고 있습니다.




[원문]
ISW Logo

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment

Support ISW

Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, George Barros, and Fredrick W. Kagan


February 5, 2024, 8:40pm ET

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.


Click here to see ISW’s 3D control-of-terrain topographic map of Ukraine. The use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for accessing this data-heavy tool.


Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline.

US Senate negotiators unveiled their proposed supplemental appropriations bill on February 4 that — if passed — would provide roughly $60 billion of security assistance for Ukraine, the overwhelming majority of which would go to American companies and US and allied militaries. The bill provides three main packages of assistance to Ukraine totaling $48.83 billion: $19.85 billion for replenishing weapons and equipment from the US Department of Defense (DoD) inventory; $13.8 billion for the purchase of weapons and munitions for Ukraine from US manufacturers; and $14.8 billion for continued US support to Ukraine through military training, intelligence sharing, and other support activities. The appropriations bill provides that funds can go to foreign countries that have provided support to Ukraine at the request of the US, but the vast majority of the aid — if approved — would go to US companies and US or allied government entities supporting Ukraine. Roughly 16 percent of the Ukraine-related appropriations in the bill would go directly to Ukraine, including $7.85 billion of direct budget support for the Ukrainian government and $1.58 billion for efforts to build a self-reliant Ukrainian economy amid the ongoing Russian invasion. The appropriations bill also provides $1.6 billion in foreign military financing, which must be used to purchase goods and services from the US, to address Ukraine’s and other US partners’ air defense, artillery, maritime security, and maintenance requirements. The appropriations bill provides smaller packages of $300 million to help Ukraine promote the rule of law and protect its borders and $100 million to support demining, counterterrorism, and nonproliferation programs. The bill provides $8 million for the DoD Inspector General to exercise oversight over US security assistance to Ukraine.


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on February 4 that Ukraine needs to replace a “series of state leaders” across the Ukrainian government who are “not just in a single sector” such as the Ukrainian military. Zelensky responded to a question from Italian outlet Rai News about reports that he may intend to replace Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi by stating that he is considering changing multiple “state leaders” and emphasized that this effort involves replacing multiple unspecified individuals, not just “a single person.” Zelensky emphasized the importance of Ukrainian morale, as the Ukrainian leadership “cannot be discouraged” and must maintain the “right positive energy” in order to win the war.


Key Takeaways:


  • US Senate negotiators unveiled their proposed supplemental appropriations bill on February 4 that — if passed — would provide roughly $60 billion of security assistance for Ukraine, the overwhelming majority of which would go to American companies and US and allied militaries.


  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on February 4 that Ukraine needs to replace a “series of state leaders” across the Ukrainian government who are “not just in a single sector” such as the Ukrainian military.


  • The Kremlin is intensifying rhetoric pushing for the hypothetical partition of Ukraine by seizing on innocuous and unrelated topics, likely in an attempt to normalize the partition narrative in Western discussions about Ukraine.


  • Delays in Western security assistance continue to exacerbate Ukraine’s shell shortage and undermine Ukraine’s ability to use high-value Western counterbattery systems.


  • The Kremlin may not allow Boris Nadezhdin, the only anti-war Russian presidential candidate, to run in the March 2024 presidential election due to Nadezhdin’s larger-than-anticipated popularity.


  • The Kremlin is reportedly nationalizing private enterprises in Russia quietly.


  • Russian forces made confirmed gains near Kupyansk, Kreminna, Avdiivka, and northeast of Bakhmut amid continued positional fighting along the entire frontline.


  • The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) may expand the list of courses available to women at the FSB Academy.


  • Russian occupation administrations continue efforts to indoctrinate Ukrainian children into Russian culture and nationalism through patronage networks with Russian federal subjects (regions).

Click here to read the full assessment.

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ISW is a tax-exempt organization under section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Donations are tax-deductible to the extent permitted by law.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation's ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives.

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