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[ISW] 러시아의 공세 캠페인 평가, 2024년 2월 7일

by 맘씨 posted Feb 08, 2024
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[요약]

주요 요점:

  • 러시아군은 2월 7일 오전에 2024년 두 번째로 큰 드론과 미사일 합동 공격을 감행했습니다.
  • 러시아는 2월 7일 공격 중 키이우 시를 세 번째 공격했는데, 이는 EU 고위 대표 조셉 보렐이 키이우를 방문한 것과 시기적으로 일치합니다.
  • 러시아 안전 보장 위원회 부의장 드미트리 메드베데프는 서방의 우크라이나 지원을 억제하기 위한 목적으로 핵 위협을 계속했습니다.
  • 러시아 연방 위원회는 2월 7일 러시아 군대에 대한 "가짜" 정보를 유포한 혐의로 유죄 판결을 받은 개인의 재산을 몰수할 수 있도록 하는 법안을 승인했습니다. 이는 2024년 3월 러시아 대선을 앞두고 러시아의 전쟁 노력에 대한 비판을 제한하기 위한 검열 노력의 일환으로 보입니다.
  • Yandex NV(러시아 인터넷 기술 회사 Yandex의 네덜란드 지주회사)는 러시아 자산 전부를 4,750억 루블(약 52억 달러)에 5개 러시아 회사로 구성된 구매 컨소시엄에 매각한다고 발표했습니다.
  • 러시아군은 호를리프카 서쪽과 도네츠크-자포리자주 경계 지역에서 전선 전체에 걸친 지속적인 위치 교전 속에서 확인된 전진을 이루었습니다.
  • 우크라이나 주요 군사 정보국(GUR)은 2월 7일 러시아가 시리아에서 온 시민들을 석유 정제소의 경비원이라는 명목으로 러시아로 모집하고 있다고 밝혔습니다.
  • 러시아 점령 당국은 점령된 우크라이나에서 우크라이나 어린이와 청소년을 계속 군사화하고 있습니다.



[원문]
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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment

Support ISW

Karolina Hird, Christina Harward, Nicole Wolkov, and Fredrick W. Kagan



February 7, 2024, 8:10pm ET

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.


Click here to see ISW’s 3D control-of-terrain topographic map of Ukraine. The use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for accessing this data-heavy tool.


Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline.

Russian forces conducted the second largest combined drone and missile strike of 2024 on the morning of February 7. Ukrainian military sources stated that Russian forces launched 64 drones and missiles at Ukraine: 20 Shahed 136/131 drones; 29 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles; four Kh-22 cruise missiles; three Kalibr cruise missiles; three Iskander-M ballistic missiles; and five S-300 surface-to-air missiles. Ukrainian air defenses destroyed 44 of 64 targets: 26 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles; three Kalibr cruise missiles; and 15 Shahed-131/131 drones. The Kyiv City Administration reported that Russian forces launched at least two dozen of the Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles at Kyiv City and damaged residential infrastructure in several neighborhoods. Ukrainian sources additionally stated that Russian forces hit Kharkiv City with S-300 surface-to-air missiles and Kh-22 cruise missiles and confirmed that two missiles that struck Kharkiv City were North Korean-provided Kn-23 (Hwasong-11 Ga) missiles. Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported that its sources in Ukrainian law enforcement suggested that Russian forces may have additionally launched 3M22 Zircon ship-launched hypersonic cruise missiles at Kyiv City but that they are still working to confirm this information.


Russia targeted Kyiv City during the February 7 strike for the third time thus far in 2024, notably coinciding with EU High Commissioner Josep Borrell’s visit to Kyiv. Borrell arrived in Kyiv on February 6 to discuss EU military aid and continued support to Ukraine. Russia has previously targeted Kyiv City during high-level foreign visits, such as UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’s visit in April 2022. The US is also, of course, currently engaged in critical discussions over continued military aid to Ukraine, and Russia has frequently timed such massive missile strikes with international aid discussions to deter continued Western support for Ukraine. Russia likely therefore purposefully conducted this strike series and targeted Kyiv City to achieve informational effects in the EU and the collective West apart from any objectives it was intended to achieve in Ukraine.


Key Takeaways:


  • Russian forces conducted the second largest combined drone and missile strike of 2024 on the morning of February 7. The February 7 strike package is emblematic of the constant air domain offense-defense innovation-adaptation race in which Russia and Ukraine are engaged. 


  • Russia targeted Kyiv City during the February 7 strike for the third time thus far in 2024, notably coinciding with EU High Commissioner Josep Borrell’s visit to Kyiv. 


  • Deputy Chairperson of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev continued his nuclear saber-rattling rhetoric likely aimed in part at deterring Western aid to Ukraine.


  • The Russian Federation Council approved a bill on February 7 that allows the Russian government to confiscate property from individuals convicted of spreading “fake” information about the Russian military, likely as part of ongoing censorship efforts to limit criticisms of Russia’s war effort ahead of the March 2024 Russian presidential election.


  • Yandex NV — the Dutch holding company of Russian internet technology company Yandex — announced that it will sell all of its Russian assets for 475 billion rubles (about $5.2 billion) to a purchasing consortium consisting of five Russian companies.


  • Russian forces made confirmed gains west of Horlivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline.


  • The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated on February 7 that Russia is mobilizing citizens from Syria who come to Russia under the guise of security guard jobs at oil refineries.


  • Russian occupation authorities continue to militarize Ukrainian children and youth in occupied Ukraine. 


Click here to read the full assessment.

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ISW is a tax-exempt organization under section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Donations are tax-deductible to the extent permitted by law.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation's ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives.

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