The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) may be overestimating Russian recruitment rates, likely in an effort to appease the Kremlin, portray Russia's military as a formidable force, and incentivize recruitment. Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii (iStories) estimated on May 30, using data on Russia's 2024 federal budget expenditures, that the Russian MoD recruited between 374,200 and 407,200 people in 2024. IStories noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to raise federal payments upon conclusion of military contracts from 195,000 rubles ($2,469) to 400,000 rubles ($5,065) in August 2024 obscured iStories’ estimations of the exact number of Russian recruits who had signed military service contracts in the third quarter of 2024.
IStories argued that the budget expenditures data suggests that the Russian MoD continues to exaggerate Russian recruitment rates at a level comparable with previous Russian exaggerations prior to 2024. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov stated in December 2024 that 427,000 people signed military contracts with the Russian MoD in 2024, which is nearly 20,000 recruits more than the maximum estimated number based on the 2024 budget expenditures. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev reported an even higher number in January 2025, stating that 450,000 people signed military contracts with the Russian MoD in 2024. IStories reported in August 2024 that the Russian MoD likely inflated the reported number of Russian recruits who had signed military service contracts by a factor of 1.5. IStories calculated, using Russian federal data on one-time enlistment payments, that 354,400 people signed military contracts in 2023, as opposed to 540,000 claimed by the Russian MoD in late 2023. The Russian MoD thus may have exaggerated Russian recruitment numbers in 2023 by over 185,000 recruits. The discrepancy in the numbers of recruits who signed military service contracts announced by Russian officials and estimates by independent sources suggests that the Russian MoD is likely trying to create an impression of a strong Russian military committed to a long-term war effort in order to convince Putin and the Russian people that Russia’s recruitment efforts have been successful and to attract additional recruits. The discrepancies between Russian MoD claims and Russian federal data on one-time enlistment payments appear to have decreased from 2023 to 2024, however, possibly because the Kremlin has been increasingly streamlining and centralizing control over regional and municipal recruitment efforts.
Russian recruitment rates reportedly fell in 2024 and may continue to decline in 2025, although Russia's exact recruitment rates are unknown. Russian opposition outlet Meduza estimated in December 2024, using data on Russian federal budget expenditures, that the number of Russian recruits fell from 93,000 in the second quarter of 2024 to roughly 50,000 in the third quarter of 2024, despite Putin’s increase in one-time federal enlistment bonuses. IStories reported, using the same data, that the number of military contracts signed daily decreased from 2,236 per day (around 201,240 in total over the quarter) in the fourth quarter of 2023 to 1,706 per day (153,540 in total over the quarter) in the same period in 2024. IStories reported that Russian recruitment rates may continue declining in 2025 based on the federal subject recruitment rates. IStories reported that the enlistment rate of Russian soldiers has declined across several Russian federal subjects since late 2024 and early 2025. IStories reported that Russian recruitment rates in the Kabardino-Balkaria Republic fell by a factor of 1.5 in May 2025 compared to December 2024, despite the fact that the region offers one the highest one-time enlistment bonuses in Russia: 1.5 million rubles ($19,418). IStories reported that regional recruitment rates in Kemerovo and Orlov oblasts are also lower in 2025 than they were at the end of 2024.
Key Takeaways:
Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) may be overestimating Russian recruitment rates, likely in an effort to appease the Kremlin, portray Russia's military as a formidable force, and incentivize recruitment.
Russian Military Reforms and Force Restructuring
- Russia is forming and training anti-unmanned aerial systems (UAVs) groups across different military branches in an effort to defend military infrastructure.
Integration of Veterans into Russian Society
- Russian law enforcement arrested leaders of two combat veteran public and non-profit organizations, possibly as part of the Kremlin's ongoing effort to establish state-controlled and pro-war veteran organizations.
Russian Defense Industrial Base
- The Russian Digital Development, Communications, and Mass Media Ministry is considering introducing restrictions on the use of foreign-made cloud servers in hopes of incentivizing and speeding up the creation of a state-controlled cloud server.
- Russia is reportedly recruiting Ukrainian teenagers in occupied Ukraine to produce strike drones in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (SEZ), Republic of Tatarstan.
Russian Technological Adaptations
- Russian developers continued to test and deploy new anti-drone measures such as combat lasers, tools to cut fiber-optic cables, and electronic warfare (EW) adaptations.
- Russian forces have deployed into combat jet-powered Dan-M drones, which can be launched from Mi-8 helicopters.
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[ISW] 이란 업데이트, 2025년 6월 6일
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