Kremlin officials and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on June 8 that Russian forces reached the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and are conducting offensive operations into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast — an oblast that Russia has not illegally declared as annexed. The Russian MoD claimed on June 8 that elements of the Russian 90th Tank Division (41st Combined Arms Army [CAA], Central Military District [CMD]) reached the western border of Donetsk Oblast and are continuing to develop an offensive in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on June 8 that Russian forces “began an offensive” in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and threatened that those who do not acknowledge current "realities of war" on the battlefield during negotiations will "receive new realities on the ground." Kremlin officials have repeatedly claimed that any negotiations to end the war must consider the "realities on the ground" (a reference to the current frontline in Ukraine) to demand that Ukraine concede to Russia's demands under threat of further Russian demands. A Russian milblogger claimed on June 8 that Russian forces reached the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border northwest of Horikhove (southeast of Novopavlivka) and advanced southeast of Muravka (northeast of Novopavlivka), west of Kotlyarivka (east of Novopavlivka), and west and southwest of Bohdanivka (southeast of Novopavlivka). ISW has not observed geolocated evidence of these claimed advances near the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border as of this writing. ISW forecasted in November 2024 that the Russian military command could advance to the southeasternmost part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to interdict Ukrainian ground lines of communications (GLOCs) that support Ukrainian positions in Donetsk Oblast and to envelop these Ukrainian positions in support of Russia's wider campaign to seize all of Donetsk Oblast.
Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Viktor Trehubov stated on June 8 that fighting continued in the Novopavlivka direction but only in Donetsk Oblast. The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the area stated that Russian forces did not cross the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported that Ukrainian General Staff Representative Andriy Kovalev stated that claims that Russian forces crossed the border are "Russian disinformation" and not true. NASA Fire Information for Resource Management (FIRMS) data shows satellite-detected heat and infrared anomalies along the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, and satellite imagery collected on June 7 and 8 shows the appearance of new artillery craters near the border in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. FIRMS data and artillery craters near the border indicate artillery missions in the area and are not inconsistent with official Ukrainian statements about continued fighting in Donetsk Oblast east of the border. ISW assesses that current Russian tactical activity in the vicinity of southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is a continuation of ongoing Russian offensive efforts in southwestern Donetsk Oblast — not the beginning of a new major offensive operation to seize operationally significant territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. ISW will continue to assess the situation in southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and update its assessment.
Key Takeaways:
- Kremlin officials and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on June 8 that Russian forces reached the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and are conducting offensive operations into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast — an oblast that Russia has not illegally declared as annexed.
- Russian officials have repeatedly signaled that the Kremlin has wider territorial ambitions in Ukraine, including in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
- Russia continued to baselessly accuse Ukraine of failing to repatriate the bodies of killed in action (KIA) soldiers on June 8 — part of the Kremlin's efforts to undermine mutually agreed upon confidence-building measures with Ukraine.
- The Kremlin appears to have orchestrated a concerted media campaign that aimed to use the purportedly agreed-upon KIA exchange in order to discredit Ukraine and promote Russia's justifications for its war to both domestic and international audiences.
- Russian officials appear to be setting conditions to withdraw from international arms control treaties, likely as part of preparation for a potential future war with NATO.
- Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a chemical plant in Tula Oblast on June 8.
- Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk.
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