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The United States authorized the voluntary departure of US military dependents and began preparations for a partial US Embassy Baghdad evacuation amid new pessimism about US-Iran nuclear talks. US President Donald Trump reportedly acknowledged that Iran has delayed US-Iran nuclear talks in a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on June 9, though he reiterated that the United States still opposes military action against Iran and believes a nuclear deal with Iran is possible. Trump expressed similar qualified pessimism in a New York Post interview on June 10, when he said that he is “less confident” now than before about Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment. Multiple US officials have said publicly that Iran will not be able to enrich uranium under a nuclear agreement. Trump also added that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon "regardless of whether a deal is reached." The United States began instituting a series of force protection measures on June 11 following the increase in pessimism. Axios reported on June 11 that US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth authorized the voluntary departure of military dependents from locations across the US Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility, citing an unspecified US defense official. An unspecified US official separately told Reuters on June 11 that the US military plans to authorize the temporary departure of service members' families from Bahrain due to "heightened tensions in the region". Unspecified US and Iraqi sources separately told Reuters on June 11 that the United States is also preparing a partial evacuation of the US Embassy in Baghdad due to unspecified “tensions in the Middle East.“ An unspecified Iraqi official added that the decision was due to “potential security concerns related to possible regional tensions.”

Some reports suggest that Iran is opposed to several provisions of a recent US nuclear negotiations proposal. The time and date of the sixth round of nuclear talks have not yet been announced. The United States hopes the sixth round of negotiations will occur on June 12, while Iran insists on June 14. An Iranian expert close to the Iranian regime claimed on June 11 that several provisions of the US nuclear proposal were so "maximalist, excessive, and even humiliating" that they compelled Iran to issue a firm and proportional response. The "proportional response" may refer to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s categorical rejection of the recent US nuclear proposal, which would require Iran to eventually halt all uranium enrichment on its own soil. This Iranian response may have influenced Trump's remarks about the decreasing likelihood of a deal. Trump separately told Fox News on June 11 that Iran has become “much more aggressive” in the negotiations. Unspecified senior US officials told Fox News that Iran appears to be delaying the process while it advances its nuclear program.

Key Takeaways:

• Tensions in the Middle East: The United States authorized the voluntary departure of US military dependents and began preparations for a partial US Embassy Baghdad evacuation amid new pessimism about US-Iran nuclear talks. Some reports suggest that Iran is opposed to several provisions of a recent US nuclear negotiations proposal.

• Iranian Threats Towards the United States: Iran continues to threaten to target US and Israeli assets in the region, likely to deter potential US or Israeli strikes on Iran.

• IAEA Board of Governors Meeting: The United States and the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) submitted a non-compliance resolution that declares Iran in non-compliance with its safeguards obligations at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting on June 11. Iran has threatened to expand its nuclear program if the IAEA passes a non-compliance resolution against Iran.

• Iran-Russia Cooperation: Russia offered to accept Iran's "excess" enriched uranium stockpile as part of a potential US-Iran nuclear agreement.

• Syria Sanctions: US Envoy to Syria Thomas Barrack told al Monitor on June 10 that the US holds several “expectations” for Syrian President Ahmed al Shara to act upon following the US decision to lift sanctions on Syria.

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