Katherine Wells, Nidal Morrison, Andie Parry, Kelly Campa, and Annika Ganzeveld

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Iran has likely begun to assess damage and conduct repair operations at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP). Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 28 and 29 shows Iranian heavy equipment near two clusters of three impact points on ventilation shafts at FFEP that were caused by US GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs. Imagery from June 29 shows an excavator and crane near the northern bunker-buster bomb impact points. Imagery from June 28 showed an excavator near the southern cluster of impact points. A US weapons expert assessed that Iran may be filling the craters and conducting engineering damage assessments and radiological sampling. The US weapons expert also noted that two of the six GBU-57 impact points have been covered by square slabs.

Satellite imagery also shows that Iran has created at least two new paths leading to the two clusters of impacts on the ventilation shafts. Vehicles are visible along the access roads that lead to the impact points. Israel struck access roads leading to FFEP on June 23 in order to "disrupt" access to the site. These strikes may delay Iranian efforts to assess and repair damage at Fordow or move materials from the site to other locations.

Iranian activity at Fordow follows possible repair operations at the Natanz Enrichment Complex. Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 27 showed that Iran filled a crater that was formed by US GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs.

Key Takeaways:

• Iran has likely begun to assess damage and conduct repair operations at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP). Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 28 and 29 shows Iranian heavy equipment near two clusters of three impact points on ventilation shafts at Fordow that were caused by US GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs. A US weapons expert assessed that Iran may be filling the craters and conducting engineering damage assessments and radiological sampling.

• International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi said on June 27 that Iran could resume uranium enrichment within “a matter of months.” Grossi stated that Iran could have at most “a few cascades of centrifuges spinning and producing enriched uranium” within months. US and Israeli strikes targeted centrifuge production facilities and active centrifuges, damaging and destroying thousands of centrifuges. The destruction of so many centrifuges will likely hamper Iran’s ability to enrich uranium in the near future.

• Former moderate Iranian President Hassan Rouhani argued that Iran must restore deterrence and rebuild public trust with the Iranian people as part of a revitalized national strategy. Rouhani’s call for restoring trust with the Iranian people follows a similar call by Iranian Supreme Leader Adviser Ali Shamkhani on June 28. Rouhani’s statement is also notable given recent reports that Rouhani may be attempting to use Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s absence to try to play a larger and more meaningful role in regime decision-making.

• Iranian Armed Forces General Staff-affiliated outlet Defa Press published an article on June 29 expressing support for the purchase of Chinese fighter jets. Defa Press argued that the Iranian Artesh Air Force “needs to employ up-to-date fighter jets" so that the Artesh Air Force can defend Iranian airspace and confront Iran's adversaries "more effectively." The Israeli Air Force established air superiority over large parts of Iran during the Iran-Israel War, as CTP-ISW previously noted. Defa Press argued that Chinese fighter jets, particularly the Chengdu J-10, can play an “important role” in helping Iran defend its airspace and confront foreign adversaries.

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