Johanna Moore, Ben Rezaei, Avery Borens, Katherine Wells, and Brian Carter



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Senior Iranian officials are reiterating red lines for Iran’s nuclear program ahead of planned nuclear negotiations with the United States. Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Majid Takht Ravanchi told NBC News on July 3 that Iran is open to resuming nuclear negotiations but “has no plans to stop uranium enrichment.” Ravanchi noted that the United States will have to “convince” Iran that it will not use force before Iran agrees to engage in talks. White House Envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to meet with Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oslo, Norway, next week, according to two unspecified sources familiar with the discussion cited by Axios. A Tehran-based Western news correspondent reported that preparations are underway for “indirect” negotiations between Witkoff and Araghchi’s meeting, but noted that the meeting has not been finalized.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated on July 3 that Israel must maintain its air superiority in Iranian airspace to prevent Iran from rebuilding its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. This statement does not appear to suggest imminent Israeli strikes because Iran would need to acquire new air defense systems to replace those lost to be able to deny Israel control of the air. It is improbable Iran could have acquired or built new systems since the ceasefire on June 24, though it is possible Iran could conduct some redeployments if there are surviving air defenses in the northeast. Katz announced on June 27 that he would pursue a policy of “enforcement” to prevent Iran from rebuilding its nuclear or ballistic missile programs. Araghchi warned on June 26 that Iran would respond to any Israeli violation of the ceasefire and noted that “Iran is not Lebanon.” Israel has conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah across Lebanon since November 2025 as part of a stated effort to prevent Hezbollah from reconstituting and threatening Israel under the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement. Araghchi is suggesting that he believes Israel will attempt to conduct similar strikes in Iran to prevent Iran from reconstructing its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

Key Takeaways:

• Senior Iranian leaders have continued to underscore that they will not stop uranium enrichment and that the United States will need to “convince” Iran that the United States will not resort to force with Iran again. It is unclear what will be required to “convince” Iran.

• Israel struck an Iranian facility on June 16 that is tied to Iran’s nuclear and chemical weapons programs. The Israeli strikes probably destroyed areas used for plastic explosives production.

• Likely Iranian-backed Iraqi militias launched one drone, probably targeting US forces at Erbil International Airport in Iraq. No militia has claimed the attack. 

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