Avery Borens, Ben Schmida, Ria Reddy, Katherine Wells, Ben Rezaei, Nidal Morrison, Andie Parry, and Annika Ganzeveld

Information Cutoff: 2:00pm ET

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Israel destroyed a large number of Iranian ballistic missile sites during the Israel–Iran War. An Israeli analyst reported on July 3 that Israeli airstrikes destroyed at least 20 Iranian missile bases. Israel also reportedly struck several factories affiliated with Iran’s ballistic missile program, rendering them inoperable. CTP-ISW previously assessed that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) sought to limit Iran’s ability to retaliate against Israel at the start of its campaign and later also sought to disrupt Iran’s long-term missile production capabilities. The IDF destroyed Iranian missile launchers and bases throughout the air campaign as part of its efforts to achieve these objectives. The IDF reported on June 17 that it had destroyed “about half” of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers and between 35 to 45 percent of Iran’s ballistic missile stockpile. Israeli intelligence assessments prior to the conflict estimated that Iran had approximately 2,000 ballistic missiles. These pre-war estimates suggest that Iran has between around 1,100 and 1,300 ballistic missiles left in its stockpile following the war.

Key Takeaways:

• US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have likely degraded Iran's ability to develop a nuclear arsenal. A nuclear analyst at a Washington, D.C.–based think tank reported on July 2 that US and Israeli strikes on Iran’s uranium metal conversion facilities at the ENTC did not significantly delay Iran’s nuclear timeline. The analyst stated that Iran could still produce enough uranium metal for a nuclear weapon (25 kilograms) in “weeks, perhaps even days” without these facilities. CTP-ISW previously assessed that, if Iran were to pursue a nuclear weapons program, it would likely pursue a nuclear arsenal rather than a single nuclear weapon. A nuclear arsenal would require more than 25 kilograms of uranium metal and significant amounts of highly enriched uranium.

• Israel is reportedly drafting a mechanism to prevent Iran from being able to rebuild its nuclear program following the conclusion of the Israel–Iran War, according to Israeli media. The mechanism is reportedly similar to the US-approved Israeli monitoring mechanism for the ceasefire in Lebanon that allows Israel to conduct preemptive operations against Hezbollah if Hezbollah violates the November 2024 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement.

• Anti-regime media claimed on July 2 that former President Hassan Rouhani supports Hassan Khomeini as the next supreme leader and is attempting to play a role in succession. Anti-regime media added that former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, along with other actors, support senior cleric Javad Alavi Boroujerdi, who has previously criticized Vilayat-e Faqih, while hardliners favor Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri, who is a staunch anti-Western figure.

• Basij forces shot and killed two men in a vehicle in Hamedan Province, Iran, on July 1. IRGC-affiliated media claimed that security forces suspected the men of conducting drone activities. Mourners at a funeral for the men on July 3 chanted anti-regime slogans, such as “Death to the oppressor” and “The real enemy is right here, they’re lying when they say it’s America.” This incident comes amid the regime’s efforts to tighten internal control, including by passing a new law on June 29 that regulates the use of drones.

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