Former President Hassan Rouhani is likely attempting to reenter Iran’s political scene by presenting the post-war crisis as a chance to reform governance, restore public trust, and recalibrate the regime’s trajectory. Rouhani has publicly framed the crisis as an opportunity for internal reform and previously lobbied senior clerics in Qom to pressure Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to accept a ceasefire. Rouhani issued a statement on June 24 in which he described the crisis as an opportunity to “rebuild the foundations of governance.” Rouhani called for rebuilding both Iran’s deterrent capabilities and its relationship with the public. Rouhani also emphasized that military strength alone is not sufficient, and that national security also depends on a “resilient economy, wise diplomacy, and mutual trust between state and society.” Rouhani’s messaging echoes past moderate themes, and he is likely positioning himself as a voice of pragmatism in a time of crisis.
Rouhani’s efforts appear to have triggered concern among his longstanding hardline rivals. Regime hardliners, including Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, have circulated statements criticizing Rouhani and his moderate stance. These narratives could serve to discredit Rouhani and block any political comeback. Zakani-affiliated outlet Jahan News resurfaced on June 30 an old remark by IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajji Zadeh criticizing Rouhani’s government for opposing missile tests and military exercises. Rouhani criticized missile tests in 2017 that featured missiles with anti-Israel slogans because he feared that such tests would endanger the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Tabnak, which is affiliated with former IRGC Commander Mohsen Rezaei, similarly accused Rouhani on July 1 of “strategic betrayal” for canceling a Chinese fighter jet deal in favor of “worn-out” French aircraft, claiming that this decision ultimately hurt Iran during the recent war. An Iranian source close to the regime told Newsweek on July 1 that, while some political factions may try to use the post-war period to push reforms, the regime is focused on “national unity, rebuilding capacities, and reinforcing strategic doctrines.” He added that any reforms would take place strictly within the Islamic Republic’s constitutional framework and would preserve the core principles of the “Islamic Revolution and [Iran’s] independence.”
Key Takeaways:
- Former President Hassan Rouhani is likely attempting to reenter Iran’s political scene by presenting the post-war crisis as a chance to reform governance, restore public trust, and recalibrate the regime’s trajectory. Rouhani’s efforts appear to have triggered concern among his longstanding hardline rivals. Rouhani may seek to work with members of the regime who have larger power bases than himself to reassert his political influence.
- Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly appointed Ali Abdollahi Ali Abadi as the new Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters Commander. Ali Abadi has held leadership roles in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and several internal security positions throughout his career. Ali Abadi had most recently served as the Armed Forces General Staff coordination deputy since 2016. Coordination deputies in Iran serve in a capacity similar to a chief of staff in the US military.
- Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi cast doubt on the possibility of European involvement in future nuclear negotiations. European Union Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas and Araghchi held a phone call on July 1 to discuss future nuclear negotiations. Araghchi posted on X following his call with Kallas that the European Union and the United Kingdom’s participation in any future negotiations is “irrelevant and therefore meaningless.”
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