Ben Rezaei, Avery Borens, Katherine Wells, Ria Reddy, Kelly Campa, Karolina Hird, Henry Jenks, William Doran, and Brian Carter

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The New York Times reported on July 23 that the series of fires and explosions that have taken place across Iran since the Israel-Iran ceasefire have fueled public anxiety and suspicions among Iranian officials about Israeli sabotage. Three unspecified Iranian officials, including an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officer, told the New York Times that they believed that “many” of these incidents have been acts of sabotage, though they provided no evidence to support this claim. The officials added that Iran has avoided blaming Israel publicly in order to avoid pressure to retaliate from Israel. An unspecified European official also assessed that the incidents were acts of Israeli sabotage, citing Israel’s recent history of covert operations in Iran. A similar pattern of explosions in 2020 took place at Iranian nuclear and military facilities, and Western and Iranian officials attributed them to Israeli cyberattacks and covert strikes. Iranian authorities have publicly attributed the recent incidents to gas leaks, garbage fires, and aging infrastructure. The New York Times report highlighted several notable incidents, including a fire at the Abadan oil refinery, an explosion in Qom Province that damaged an apartment building, and a blast in Tehran Province that struck housing for Iranian judiciary staff. Images of the aftermath of the judiciary housing explosion show “walls and windows [that] were blown out.” This pattern of damage is similar to damage to apartment buildings in Tehran on June 12 and 13 during the Israel-Iran War. Such fires and explosions are not uncommon in Iran during the summer months, however. Some incidents may result from accidental causes, such as infrastructure failures or extreme heat. CTP-ISW has tracked dozens of explosions and fires across Iran since the Israel-Iran ceasefire on June 24.

Key Takeaways:

• Explosions in Iran: The New York Times reported on July 23 that the series of fires and explosions that have taken place across Iran since the Israel-Iran ceasefire have fueled public anxiety and suspicions among Iranian officials about Israeli sabotage.

• Iranian Approach to the West: The Israel-Iran War has exacerbated longstanding divides within the Iranian regime as “pragmatic conservatives” seek to reassert influence over foreign policy and counterbalance hardliners’ opposition to diplomacy with the West.

• Iran-China-Russia Coordination: Iran held trilateral talks with the PRC and Russia in Tehran on June 22 ahead of expected United States-Iran nuclear talks, likely to rally diplomatic support for Iran if the E3 triggers the JCPOA snapback mechanism. It is unlikely that the PRC and Russia could prevent the reimposition of sanctions if the E3 triggers the snapback mechanism, so Iran is likely trying to get the PRC and Russia to prevent the E3 from activating the snapback mechanism in the first place.

• ISIS in Southern Syria: The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) supporters attempted to foment intercommunal violence and encourage attacks by ISIS supporters against the Druze during the recent violence in Suwayda Province. Several ISIS-linked social media accounts claimed that ISIS supporters are currently active in Suwayda Province and are participating in the conflict “discreetly and independently” alongside Sunni Bedouin tribes.

• Security in Suwayda: Unknown men in military uniforms reportedly executed Druze civilians in Suwayda Province during the recent bout of intercommunal violence, which will likely erode trust in government forces and increase the risk of future spasms of violence regardless of whether government forces are culpable for the executions.

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