Ben Rezaei, Ben Schmida, Katherine Wells, Nidal Morrison, Ali Fishman, and Brian Carter

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Some Iranian officials continued to signal openness to resuming nuclear talks with the United States, but Iranian officials have not altered their previous set of conditions. Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi stated on July 24 that Iran is ready to resume talks with the United States and added, "The sooner, the better."Gharibabadi said that Iran will open talks only if the United States comes to the table with "sincerity" for a "win-win solution," and not use the talks as a "cover for another military attack." Gharibabadi is the Iranian chief nuclear negotiator and has coordinated high-level engagement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) envoys. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi previously stated on July 1 that Iran will not resume nuclear talks unless it first receives assurance that the United States will not launch military attacks during negotiations. Gharibabadi also described the E3-imposed end-of-August deadline for reaching an agreement as "flexible." A Wall Street Journal reporter previously noted that the E3 proposed extending the snapback deadline during a July 17 call with Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi.

A delay in the snapback deadline is unlikely to shift Iran’s position on domestic uranium enrichment, though additional leverage applied after a delay could cause Iran to shift its position. Iran and the E3 will meet on July 25 in Istanbul to discuss Iran’s nuclear program and snapback-related sanctions. Iran may calculate that reaching a deal with the E3 and the United States would delay or prevent snapback sanctions by demonstrating Iran’s willingness to resolve the nuclear issue. The E3 reportedly aims to engage Iran and secure verifiable steps—such as restoring Iranian cooperation with the IAEA and the removal of Iran‘s 60 percent enriched uranium stockpile—before the snapback deadline takes effect.

Key Takeaways:

• Iran-US Nuclear Talks: Some Iranian officials are continuing to signal openness to resume nuclear talks with the United States, but Iranian officials have not altered their previous set of conditions.

• SDF-Syrian Government Negotiations: The Syrian transitional government’s continued demand that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) disarm is a double standard that the government has not applied to every Syrian faction equally. The SDF’s recent statement about disarmament and the linkage of disarmament with the recent violence in Suwayda reflects a deeply held fear that Kurds developed during the civil war about the threat they face from forces now affiliated with the government, rather than a recent fear spurred by the recent violence.

• Iraqi Discussions on the PMF: Some Iranian-backed Iraqi actors continue to use sectarian events in Syria to justify the existence of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). Ongoing discussions surrounding the dissolution of the PMF are probably driving some of these Iraqi militia efforts to justify their existence.

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