Carolyn Moorman, Avery Borens, Katherine Wells, Andie Parry, and Brian Carter

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Iran is targeting minorities for perceived disloyalty, which will almost certainly reinforce pre-existing anti-regime sentiment and could spark more unrest over time. British media reported on July 6 that armed Iranian “intelligence agents” have conducted dozens of coordinated raids across Iran targeting Bahai religious minority members. Iranian authorities reportedly seized electronic devices, personal belongings, and religious material that is being treated as contraband. Bahai members have frequently been accused of espionage and anti-regime activities. Iran‘s aggressive targeting of minorities for perceived disloyalty may not act as the proximate trigger for major protests, but it will contribute to frustrations that could explode into mass protests after a salient event, as happened during the Mahsa Amini protests. The death of Mahsa Amini in police custody acted as the proximate cause for protests in Tehran that rapidly expanded to Kurdish areas of Iran in Fall 2022. The regime has long oppressed Iranian Kurds, but Mahsa Amini’s death acted as a salient event that caused unexpected unrest.

Iran has arrested over 700 individuals on espionage accusations since the start of the Israel-Iran War on June 12. The arrests include several individuals whom the regime characterized as ”Mossad spies.” Regime authorities, for example, arrested someone they called a Mossad ”associate” on July 6 for collecting information on military sites and attempting to send the information to ”hostile intelligence services.” First Deputy of the Iranian Judiciary Hamzeh Khalili stated on June 27 that the judiciary will pursue Israeli ”spies” and called on Iranians to inform the authorities of any dangerous or suspicious activities. CTP-ISW assessed on June 27 that Iran’s concern about Israeli infiltration and covert operations in Iran may be used as justification for broader crackdowns on society.

Key Takeaways:

• Iran is targeting minorities for perceived disloyalty, which will almost certainly reinforce pre-existing anti-regime sentiment and could spark more unrest over time. Iran‘s aggressive targeting of minorities for perceived disloyalty may not act as the proximate trigger for major protests, but it will contribute to frustrations that could explode into mass protests after a salient event, as happened during the Mahsa Amini protests.

• Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since moving to a secure location on June 12 at the start of the Iran-Israel War.



• Likely Houthi fighters attacked a Liberian-flagged ship off the coast of Hudaydah, Yemen, on July 6.

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