Katherine Wells, Ben Rezaei, Avery Borens, Carolyn Moorman, Ben Schmida, and Brian Carter



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Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei denied on July 8 US President Donald Trump’s July 7 claim that Iran requested nuclear talks. Western and regional officials told Reuters on July 8 that Iran may “drag out” the talks to avoid either renewed airstrikes if negotiations fail or “humiliation at home” if Iran accepts the US demand for zero uranium enrichment. US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff will meet with Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oslo in the coming days for nuclear talks, according to an Axios report on July 3. A Tehran-based Western news correspondent later confirmed on July 4 that preparations are underway for “indirect” negotiations between Witkoff and Araghchi but noted that the meeting has not been finalized. The Iranian official position against halting uranium enrichment and missile and drone production has not changed, however. It is therefore unlikely that nuclear negotiations would have a successful outcome in the aftermath of the Israel-Iran war if the current positions remain the same.

Top Iranian officials have continued to argue that US-Iranian nuclear negotiations were “gaining momentum” prior to Israeli airstrikes, which is false. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi incorrectly claimed that US-Iran negotiations had “gained momentum” prior to the Israeli air campaign. US President Donald Trump publicly threatened force against Iran on April 12 if Iran did not agree to a nuclear deal within 60 days of the start of talks. Israel began its airstrikes on June 12-13, one day after Trump’s 60-day deadline. The United States had not altered its demand that Iran seek no uranium enrichment, and Iran had not altered its demand that it be allowed to continue enrichment. It is misleading to frame these talks as having meaningfully advanced when fundamental disagreements over nuclear enrichment continued to persist.  Araghchi’s statements and tone echoed those of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during his July 7 interview with American media personality Tucker Carlson, suggesting that the Iranian government is orchestrating an information campaign targeting Western audiences. Iran even expanded its nuclear program during the negotiating period, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)’s recent reports. The amount of enriched uranium and the level to which it was enriched had no civilian use.

Key Takeaways:

• Top Iranian officials have continued to argue that US-Iranian nuclear negotiations were “gaining momentum” prior to Israeli airstrikes, which is false. It is misleading to frame these talks as having meaningfully advanced when fundamental disagreements over nuclear enrichment continued to persist.

• Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei disputed on July 8 US President Donald Trump’s July 7 claim that Iran requested nuclear talks. A Tehran-based Western news correspondent later confirmed on July 4 that preparations are underway for “indirect” negotiations between Witkoff and Araghchi but noted that the meeting has not been finalized.

• Iran cannot access certain key nuclear facilities, according to the Iranian president. This suggests that leaked Iranian signals intercepts about limited damage at the nuclear facilities were inaccurate.

• The People’s Republic of China (PRC) navy harassed a German aircraft supporting the EU mission to defend international shipping against Houthi attacks. The PRC does not actively support the Houthis, but the harassment could cause allied aircraft to be unable to support efforts to defend against the Houthis.

• Likely Houthi militants conducted a complex attack targeting the Liberian-flagged bulk carrier Eternity C and killed two crew members off the coast of Hudaydah, Yemen, on July 7.

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