Ria Reddy, Ben Rezaei, Katherine Wells, Avery Borens, Ben Schmida, Kelly Campa, Parker Hempel, and Brian Carter



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Russia offered to help replenish Iran’s depleted uranium stockpile to support a peaceful nuclear program. CTP-ISW previously assessed that Russia's involvement in the US-Iran nuclear talks would be very unlikely to secure US interests due to Russia's alignment with Iran. Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov stated on July 8 that Russia can receive and downblend Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and return it to supply Iranian nuclear power plants. Downblending is the process of converting highly enriched uranium into low-enriched uranium. Russia previously accepted 11,000 kilograms of enriched uranium from Iran in December 2024 in exchange for natural uranium as part of the JCPOA. Russia also has previously offered to accept Iran's enriched uranium to "provide assistance" to the United States and Iran during the US-Iran nuclear negotiations before the Israel-Iran war. Neither the United States nor Iran accepted Russia's offer to mediate. Russia has repeatedly opposed the stated US demands in the negotiations by supporting Iran's right to enrich uranium and has consistently supported the Axis of Resistance against Israel.

French Director General of External Security Nicolas Lerner told French media on July 8 that Iran’s nuclear program is very seriously damaged and its weaponization timeline is extremely delayed, which is consistent with previous reports. Lerner did note that Iran still retains a significant portion of its enriched uranium stockpile. Lerner stated that the US and Israeli strikes have "very seriously affected, very seriously damaged...and extremely delayed" all aspects of Iran's nuclear program. Lerner said that the strikes "destroyed" a small part of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile but claimed that Iran still retains most of its stockpile. He added that France has "indications" of the stockpile’s location but cannot confirm the details until the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resumes its verification activities at Iranian nuclear facilities.The IAEA did not have access to all of the possible facilities Iran could use to store enriched uranium, so it is unclear how the IAEA is critical to confirming these details. Israeli intelligence, for example, has consistently provided exclusive information about Iran's nuclear program that the IAEA has not provided (at least publicly). The enrichment level of the enriched material that Iran reportedly retains is unclear.

Key Takeaways:

• Russia offered to help replenish Iran’s depleted uranium stockpile to support a peaceful nuclear program. Russia's involvement in the US-Iran nuclear talks would be very unlikely to secure US interests due to Russia's alignment with Iran.

• French intelligence assesses that Iran’s nuclear program is very seriously damaged and its weaponization timeline is extremely delayed, which is consistent with previous reports.

• British Foreign Secretary David Lammy warned on July 8 that the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) could trigger the snapback mechanism if Iran does not cooperate on its nuclear program. Lammy emphasized that Iran needs to "step back" from its "nuclear ambitions," including by resuming IAEA inspections, to avoid snapback sanctions.

• The Houthis killed at least four crew members and took up to 21 crew members hostage, probably as part of an effort to deter shipping companies from sailing to Israeli ports. The Houthis appear to have adopted hostage-taking to discourage international shipping companies from shipping goods to Israel. The effort to discourage shipping companies from shipping to Israel is part of a long Houthi campaign to “blockade” Israel and impose economic costs for Israel’s operations in the Gaza Strip.

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