Ria Reddy, Ben Rezaei, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, and Brian Carter



Information Cutoff: 21:45 EDT

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) will be publishing multiple updates over the next 24 hours from June 12-13, 2025, to provide insights into the ongoing strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and key military and nuclear program leadership. We will continue to produce Iran Update special editions until the strikes conclude. We will prioritize covering Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities in response to the attacks that threaten US forces and interests.

This update is the first of at least three CTP-ISW Iran Updates over the next 24 hours that will cover the Iran-Israel war. The recent Israeli strikes are a rapidly evolving situation, and no single individual or organization will have complete information at this time, including the states involved. Some of the information that is available in the open-source will be contradictory or inaccurate. CTP-ISW will continually refine our assessments over the coming days and weeks, as we work to understand the situation. CTP-ISW will issue corrections and clearly articulate when we refine an earlier understanding of events.  

Israel conducted the first strikes of its air campaign targeting the Iranian nuclear program and regime leadership on June 12. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on June 12 that Israel has launched a military operation against Iran that will continue “for as many days as it takes to remove the [Iranian] threat.” He stated that Israel has targeted Iran’s nuclear enrichment, nuclear weaponization, and ballistic missile programs as well as Iranian nuclear scientists.

Iran has not yet responded to Israel’s strikes despite claims on June 11 that it had finalized plans for an “immediate counterstrike” against Israel. It is unclear at this time why Iran has yet to respond. Iran may opt for “strategic patience” in the aftermath of a strike on its nuclear facilities or other key assets. Iran responded four days after the US airstrike that killed Qassem Soleimani on January 3, 2020. Iran similarly waited two weeks to respond to the Israeli airstrike that killed senior IRGC officer Mohammad Reza Zahedi. Iran could choose to delay a counterattack to better assess the damage that Israel inflicted and then calculate a suitable response to the initial attack or campaign. CTP-ISW will continue to monitor Iran’s response whenever it comes. 

Key Takeaways:

• Israel conducted the first strikes of its air campaign targeting the Iranian nuclear program and regime leadership on June 12.

• These strikes killed a number of senior Iranian leaders.

• Iran has not yet responded to Israel’s strikes despite claims on June 11 that it had finalized plans for an “immediate counterstrike” against Israel. It is unclear at this time why Iran has yet to respond.

• Iran may opt for “strategic patience” in the aftermath of a strike on its nuclear facilities or other key assets.

• It is also possible that Israel somehow disrupted Iran’s response by targeting Iran’s ballistic missile launch sites and stockpiles.

Click Here to Read the Full Update

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