Brian Carter, Ben Rezaei, Ria Reddy, Avery Borens, Ben Schmida, Carolyn Moorman, and Andie Parry

Information Cutoff: 6:00PM ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) will be publishing two updates per day while conditions in the Middle East warrant it. Our updates will provide insights into the ongoing strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and key military and nuclear program leadership. We will prioritize covering Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities in response to the attacks that threaten US forces and interests.

Iran has maintained its negotiating position on its nuclear program during the Israeli campaign, meaning that Iran does not appear willing to negotiate an end to the Iran-Israel War yet. Western media reported on June 16 that Iran is seeking to “de-escalate tensions” and quoted Arab officials who said that Iranian officials said that Tehran is open to returning to negotiations if the United States does not join the strike. Arab “intermediaries” said that Iran is “not ready to make concessions in nuclear talks,” however. Public statements from Iranian leaders support this claim by Arab intermediaries. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian continued to threaten “severe” responses if the United States failed to restrain Israel and separately defended Iran’s “right” to peaceful nuclear energy and research. The Iranian parliament also began to build a proposal to leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty. These responses are presumably non-starters for the United States and Israel. An unspecified Israeli official said prior to the strikes that Iran must end its uranium enrichment at a minimum, which is a position that the Trump administration has also maintained during the negotiations.

The United States is deploying new forces to the Middle East as part of a buildup to be closer to the Middle East and “provide options to defend US assets and interests.” A US official told Western media on June 16 that the USS Nimitz carrier strike group is en route to the Middle East from the South China Sea, and it is ahead of schedule. The US Air Force is also moving “a large number” of refueling tanker aircraft to Europe to be closer to the Middle East, according to a US official. Flight tracking data from June 15 confirmed that at least 21 tankers have left the United States and started to move towards Europe.

Key Takeaways:

• Iran has reportedly maintained its uncompromising position regarding nuclear talks, meaning that it is not yet ready to negotiate an end to the war with Israel. Other reports have indicated that Iran may grant concessions if it is allowed to fully retaliate against Israel.

• The United States is deploying additional forces to the Middle East to “provide options to defend US assets and interests.” These forces include a carrier strike group and a high number of refueling tanker aircraft.

• The IAEA indicated that Israeli strikes have likely damaged or destroyed thousands of centrifuges at the Natanz nuclear site. The Fordow site remains largely unscathed, however, according to the IAEA.

• The Iranian capacity to conduct missile operations is likely degraded. The IDF has likely destroyed around a third of the Iranian missile launchers. Iran has also used between a third and half of its missiles that can reach Israel.



• The IDF struck the IRIB headquarters in Iran likely to degrade the Iranian capacity to produce propaganda and shape the information environment. This came after the IDF began striking other regime institutions and energy infrastructure.

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