Ben Rezaei, Ria Reddy, Kelly Campa, Avery Borens, Johanna Moore,

Nidal Morrison, Nicholas Carl, Andie Parry, Annika Ganzeveld, and Brian Carter

Information Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET

CTP-ISW will resume our coverage of the Israeli strikes on Iran tomorrow, June 14, 2025. We will produce two updates. The first will cover events between 2:00 PM ET on June 13 and 6:00 AM ET on June 14. The second update will cover events between 6:01 AM ET and 6:00 PM ET on June 14. We will continue to produce two updates per day while conditions warrant it.

Israel launched an air campaign targeting the Iranian nuclear program and regime leadership on June 12 to “degrade, destroy, and remove [the] threat” of Iranian weaponization of its nuclear program. The June 12 to 13 strikes are the opening volley in a weekslong air campaign, according to multiple Israeli officials. It will be difficult to assess the success or failure of the Israeli air campaign based on these objectives in this early stage. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) declassified an Israeli intelligence report on June 12 that argued that Iran was approaching a “point of no return” in its ability to weaponize its nuclear program. The intelligence report, which cited the May 31 International Atomic Energy Agency comprehensive report, argued that Iran’s rapid enrichment of uranium would enable it to quickly weaponize and produce multiple nuclear weapons. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on June 12 that the strikes are part of a campaign to “roll-back the Iranian threat to Israel’s survival.” It is not immediately clear at what point Israel would determine that Iran’s nuclear program no longer poses a threat to its survival. An air campaign designed to cause significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program will nonetheless be a lengthy undertaking, as public statements by senior Israeli officials and comments by unspecified Israeli officials suggest. An unspecified senior Israeli official cited by the Wall Street Journal on June 13 stated that Israel’s air campaign targeting Iranian nuclear and military targets is intended to force Iran into negotiations or incapacitate it. An operation to force Iran to negotiate could be much less intensive than an operation to incapacitate Iran, for example.

Israel's strikes intended to impose discrete military effects on Iran that made it difficult for Iran to respond quickly. The strikes have targeted air defenses and missile sites as well as key leaders. These strikes appear to be imposing three effects on the Iranian military:

• Suppressing Iranian air defenses. Reports indicate that Israel has struck some key components of Iranian air defense systems, including an early-warning radar at the Khatam ol Anbia Western Air Defense Zone in Hamadan Province. Other strikes may have hit the air defense base responsible for protecting the nuclear facility at Fordow. Strikes that destroy components of Iran’s air defense systems will cause a temporary disruption to Iranian defenses that would enable Israeli 4th-generation, non-stealthy aircraft to operate in Iranian airspace with greater ease.

• Degrading Iranian retaliatory capabilities. Israeli airstrikes and drones have struck numerous Iranian ballistic missile silos and launchers. These strikes may have destroyed some of Iran’s missiles, launchers, and missile stockpiles, which would limit Iran’s ability to immediately retaliate in a meaningful way. Iran claimed on June 11 that it had finalized plans for an “immediate counterstrike” against Israel that would involve hundreds of ballistic missiles, but may have only been able to enact part of its plan due to degraded capabilities. CTP-ISW is currently monitoring a large-scale Iranian missile attack targeting Israel, which may suggest that the degradation of Iran’s retaliatory capability had only a limited temporal effect (see below under “Iranian Retaliation”).

• Disrupting Iranian command-and-control. Israel has conducted a decapitation campaign targeting Iranian military leadership. This disruption is temporary and limited, however. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has already appointed successors for a majority of the military leadership that killed. Iran has presumably already drafted a plan for retaliation that these successors can adopt. The successors may have difficulty implementing the retaliation plan, however, given the losses incurred from Israeli strikes targeting Iran’s retaliatory capabilities.

These constraints have contributed to Israel’s immediate success and set conditions for Israel to continue and expand the campaign as needed. Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities serve Israel’s long-term purpose of removing the Iranian nuclear threat and protecting Israel.

Key Takeaways:

• Israel launched an air campaign targeting the Iranian nuclear program and regime leadership on June 12 to “degrade, destroy, and remove [the] threat” of Iranian weaponization of its nuclear program. The June 12 to 13 strikes are the opening volley in a weekslong air campaign, according to multiple Israeli officials. It will be difficult to assess the success or failure of the Israeli air campaign based on these objectives in this early stage.

• Israel's strikes intended to impose discrete military effects on Iran that made it difficult for Iran to respond quickly. These effects included the suppression of Iranian air defenses, the degradation of Iran’s ability to retaliate against Israel, and the disruption of Iranian command and control. Israel’s ability to generate at least some of these effects has contributed to Israel’s immediate success and set conditions for Israel to continue and expand the campaign as needed.

• Israel has targeted Iranian nuclear infrastructure on June 12 and 13 in an effort to cripple Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities. Israel struck enrichment capabilities at Natanz, nuclear facilities in Esfahan. There are unverified reports of strikes at or near Fordow, possibly targeting air defense systems.

• The IDF also targeted multiple Iranian military targets, including a major missile base in Kermanshah Province.

• The IDF targeted prominent members of the Iranian nuclear research network. Israel killed five senior Iranian nuclear scientists from Shahid Beheshti University on June 12 and 13.

• Unspecified Iranian sources told a New York Times journalist that Israeli strikes killed IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani.

• Iran has replaced its slain commanders with other high-ranking officers with long records of service to the regime.

• Iran conducted a two-wave ballistic missile attack targeting Israel from Iranian territory about 18 hours after the initial Israeli strikes. This retaliation seems to have had limited to no effect at this time.

• Iran’s partners and proxies in the Axis of Resistance—excluding the Houthis—released generic statements condemning the Israeli strikes and have not yet changed their behavior toward Israel. The parties gave no indication that they would intervene on behalf of Iran, reflecting how weakened they are after years of fighting Israel. The Houthis are the only Axis partner that has targeted Israel after the strikes.

• US President Donald Trump warned that "even more brutal” attacks on Iran will follow if Iran does not commit to a nuclear deal with the United States. Iran subsequently announced that it has withdrawn from the US-Iran nuclear talks.

• The US Navy deployed the USS Thomas Hudner to the eastern Mediterranean, presumably to assist Israeli ballistic missile defenses.

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