Andie Parry, Ben Rezaei, Avery Borens, Kelly Campa,

Annika Ganzeveld, and Brian Carter

Information Cutoff: 6:00 AM ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) will be publishing two updates per day while conditions in the Middle East warrant it. Our updates will provide insights into the ongoing strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and key military and nuclear program leadership. We will prioritize covering Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities in response to the attacks that threaten US forces and interests.

Iran has used significantly fewer munitions in its response to Israel than originally planned because the IDF destroyed and damaged missile launchers and silos that Iran planned to use to retaliate against Israel. This is consistent with CTP-ISW’s observation that degrading Iran’s retaliatory capabilities was one objective of the initial Israeli strikes on June 12. Two IRGC members speaking to the New York Times stated that Iran originally planned to launch 1,000 ballistic missiles at Israel in response to the Israeli strikes on Iran. Iran only launched around 200 ballistic missiles at Israel in six attack waves, however. The IRGC members stated that Israeli strikes on Iranian missile bases ”made it impossible to move missiles quickly from storage and place them on launchpads.” Satellite imagery shows that the IDF damaged the Amand and Southwest Tabriz missile bases. The Amand Missile Base, which is located north of Tabriz, reportedly stores Ghadr medium-range ballistic missiles. Iran previously used Ghadr missiles in its April and October 2024 attacks on Israel. The Southwest Tabriz Missile Base reportedly stores Shahab-variant missiles. The IDF separately confirmed that it struck the Artesh Air Force 2nd Tactical Airbase in Tabriz. The IDF reported that it destroyed the Tabriz Artesh airbase. The Artesh airbase reportedly stored SA-6 Gainful surface-to-air missiles, which suggests that Israel destroyed the base so that the Artesh could not defend missile bases near the base against Israeli strikes. The Amand Missile Base is located around 11 miles away from the Artesh Air Force 2nd Tactical Airbase.

Satellite imagery also shows that Israeli strikes damaged the Bakhtaran (Panj Pelleh) underground missile base in Kermanshah and the IRGC Ghadir Site in Tehran. The Bakhtaran (Panj Pelleh) underground missile base reportedly stores Qiam-1 and Fateh-110 ballistic missiles. A missile proliferation expert stated that the Ghadir Site could be related to Kheibar Shekan and Fattah missile integration. Iran previously used Kheybar Shekan missiles in its April and October 2024 attacks on Israel.

Key Takeaways:

• Iran has used significantly fewer munitions in its response to Israel than originally planned because the IDF destroyed and damaged missile launchers and silos that Iran planned to use to retaliate against Israel. This is consistent with CTP-ISW’s observation that degrading Iran’s retaliatory capabilities was one objective of the initial Israeli strikes on June 12.

• The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has continued to strike Iranian air defense systems to maintain air superiority over Iran.

• Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Brigadier General Majid Mousavi to replace Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajji Zadeh as the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force commander. The IRGC Aerospace Force oversees the Iranian missile and drone programs and led the Iranian attacks against Israel in April and October 2024.

• Iran has conducted six waves of ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel from Iranian territory since the initial Israeli strikes on June 12. At least 10 interceptors, shrapnel, or ballistic missiles struck the Tel Aviv area, causing damage to high-rise buildings, over 60 injuries, and one death.

• The IDF has reportedly continued to target Iranian military targets. Some of these strikes—but not all—seek to degrade Iran’s retaliatory capabilities.

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