Andie Parry, Johanna Moore, Nidal Morrison, Ria Reddy, Kelly Campa, Nicholas Carl, and Annika Ganzeveld

Information Cutoff: 6:00 PM ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) will be publishing two updates per day while conditions in the Middle East warrant it. Our updates will provide insights into the ongoing strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and key military and nuclear program leadership. We will prioritize covering Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities in response to the attacks that threaten US forces and interests.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) expanded its ongoing air campaign on June 15 to target Iranian governance institutions, some of which are related to internal security. The expansion of targets to include regime institutions comes after the IDF expanded its air campaign on June 14 to include critical Iranian energy infrastructure. CNN geolocated footage of smoke near the Justice Ministry in western Tehran on June 15. Israeli strikes also targeted the Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry in Tehran. The IDF also reportedly struck institutions that are part of the Iranian internal security apparatus, including the Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) and the Law Enforcement Command (LEC) headquarters. The LEC has many subordinate units, including the Prevention and Operations Police, which commands law enforcement stations across Iran, and Special Units, a highly trained, anti-riot force that deploys when regular police cannot contain civil disorder. Disruption to institutions like the LEC could degrade the regime's ability to maintain internal security and social control. These internal security functions are particularly important given that recent Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure will likely worsen Iran’s ongoing energy crisis and lead to more widespread and frequent electricity shortages and outages. Frustration over energy shortages could trigger internal unrest.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed on June 15 that an Israeli airstrike killed IRGC Intelligence Organization Chief Brigadier General Mohammad Kazemi and his deputy, Hassan Mohaghegh. The strike also killed IRGC intelligence officer Mohsen Bagheri. Kazemi previously led the IRGC Counterintelligence Organization and was therefore responsible for internal monitoring of the Iranian armed forces. Kazemi replaced former IRGC Intelligence Organization Chief Hossein Taeb in 2022. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly dismissed Taeb due to incompetence after the IRGC Intelligence Organization failed to prevent several Israeli assassinations and covert operations in Iran.

Key Takeaways:

• The IDF expanded its air campaign into Iran by beginning to strike regime institutions, including some related to internal security and social control. This comes the day after the IDF began striking energy infrastructure. The degradation of the Iranian coercive apparatus coupled with energy shortages could destabilize the regime.

• The IDF conducted its furthest strike eastward as part of its efforts to establish air superiority over Iran. The IDF specifically struck an Artesh airbase around Mashhad in northeastern Khorasan Razavi Province. Most of the Israeli strikes targeting air defenses have been around western and central Iran thus far.

• Iran has continued its missile campaign targeting Israel, having launched 10 total barrages at the time of this writing. Two of these barrages occurred in recent hours. The IDF has intercepted around 92 percent of the missiles that Iran has fired at Israel thus far, according to an Israeli official speaking to Reuters.

Click Here to Read the Full Update

Website | Jobs & Internships

Follow ISW on social media:

Facebook | X | YouTube | Instagram | LinkedIn | Threads | Bluesky

Donate online or by sending a check to the Institute for the Study of War at 1400 16th Street NW, Suite #515, Washington, DC, 20036. Please consider including the Institute for the Study of War in your estate plans.

ISW is a tax-exempt organization under section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Donations are tax-deductible to the extent permitted by law.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation's ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives.