Kelly Campa, Nidal Morrison, Ria Reddy and Annika Ganzeveld

Information Cutoff: 6:00 AM ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) will be publishing two updates per day while conditions in the Middle East warrant it. Our updates will provide insights into the ongoing strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and key military and nuclear program leadership. We will prioritize covering Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities in response to the attacks that threaten US forces and interests.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has targeted several nuclear sites in Tehran since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on June 14. The IDF struck the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND), which played a leading role in the Iranian nuclear weapons research program before 2003. The IDF killed former SPND Research and Technology Department head Mansour Asgari on June 14. The IDF also struck the Iranian Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Ministry (MODAFL), which controls SPND. The IDF separately struck unspecified "nuclear weapons development laboratories" in Tehran, as well as an unspecified "chemical materials research and development site" and centrifuge production facility in western Tehran. Two Israeli defense officials told the New York Times that the “nuclear weapons development laboratories” were experimental laboratories. The IDF stated that Iran used the "chemical materials research and development site” to produce raw materials for the development of nuclear weapons.

An Israeli Army Radio correspondent reported on June 15 that Israeli officials received intelligence prior to the start of the Israeli air campaign on June 12 that Iran had formed a “weapons group.” The correspondent reported that Iran established the “weapons group” in the months following Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack on Israel. The correspondent reported that the “weapons group” was in the “experimental stage” and was conducting “successful experiments on the components” of a nuclear weapon. Israeli media reported on June 13 that Israel has killed military commanders and nuclear scientists who were part of the “weapons group.” Israeli media also reported that the “weapons group” was based in several universities in Tehran and at the Parchin military complex east of Tehran.

Key Takeaways:

• The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has targeted several nuclear sites in Tehran since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on June 14.

• A US weapons expert reported on June 15 that, if Israel does not render the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) inoperable, then Iran would be able to produce enough weapons-grade uranium (WGU) for nine nuclear weapons by the end of the first month using its pre-attack 60% enriched uranium stockpile.

• The IDF has also targeted several military and defense industrial sites outside Tehran since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on June 14.

• Israel expanded its ongoing strike campaign against Iran on June 14 by attacking critical Iranian energy infrastructure.

• Iran has conducted two waves of ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel from Iranian territory since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on June 14.

• The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has continued to strike Iranian missile launchers, which is likely limiting the scale of the Iranian response to Israel.

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