Kelly Campa, Avery Borens, Nidal Morrison, Carolyn Moorman,

Ben Schmida, Ria Reddy, and Annika Ganzeveld



Information Cutoff: 6:00 PM ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) will be publishing two updates per day while conditions in the Middle East warrant it. Our updates will provide insights into the ongoing strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and key military and nuclear program leadership. We will prioritize covering Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities in response to the attacks that threaten US forces and interests.

Click here to see an explainer on the structure and function of the entities within the Iranian armed forces and the roles that they play in regime security.

CTP-ISW has recorded 197 reported or confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Iran since the start of the Israeli air campaign on June 12.

CTP-ISW has recorded 39 reported or confirmed Iranian ballistic missile or interceptor impacts on Israel since the start of the Israeli air campaign on June 12.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has likely degraded Iran's ability to conduct ballistic missile attacks. The IDF reported on June 17 that it has destroyed “about half” of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers, which the IDF stated is equivalent to over 200 launchers. The IDF reported on June 16 that it had destroyed a third (120 launchers) of Iran’s missile launchers, which suggests that the IDF destroyed around 80 launchers between June 16 and 17. The IDF also estimated on June 17 that it had destroyed between 35 and 45 percent of Iran’s ballistic missile stockpile. The IDF released footage of strikes targeting Iranian ballistic missile storage and launch sites in western Iran on June 17. Iran’s missile barrages in the recent conflict are much smaller compared to its barrages in its October 2024 attack on Israel, which likely reflects the IDF’s degradation of Iranian ballistic missile capabilities. Iran launched around 200 ballistic missiles in two waves in October 2024, whereas Iran used 30 to 40 missiles per barrage on June 16. Iran used 20 missiles in its largest barrage and two missiles in its smallest barrage on June 17, moreover.

Key Takeaways:

• The IAEA confirmed that Israeli strikes have impacted underground infrastructure at the Natanz nuclear site. This came after the IAEA reported that Israeli strikes have likely damaged or destroyed thousands of centrifuges at Natanz.

• Israel has continued striking Iranian military targets, which has likely degraded Iranian missile forces significantly. This degradation is reflected in the decreasing volume of Iranian missile fire at Israel.

• Israel has continued striking energy infrastructure and regime sites connected to domestic surveillance and repression. These strikes could reduce the ability of the regime to control the population and, in turn, destabilize it.

• US President Donald Trump called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” This came as the United States sent additional forces to the Middle East and could reportedly meet with senior Iranian officials in the coming days to discuss a resolution to the war.

• Iran has prepared to fire missiles at US forces if the United States strikes Iran, according to the New York Times. The outlet reported that Iran would first attack US positions in Iraq and then in other unspecified Arab countries, presumably those around the Persian Gulf.

• Iranian-backed militias have agreed to attack US forces in Iraq if the United States strikes Iran. These militias are the same ones that conducted around 200 attacks targeting US positions in Iraq and Syria from October 2023 to November 2024.

• A senior Houthi official said that the Houthis “will intervene to support Iran against Israel.” The Houthis could support Iran by firing projectiles at US and Israeli targets or resuming attacks targeting international shipping.

Click Here to Read the Full Update

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