Ben Schmida, Andie Parry, Nidal Morrison, Ria Reddy, Olivia Gibson, and Brian Carter



Information Cutoff: 5:00 PM ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) are publishing multiple updates daily to provide analysis on the war with Iran. The morning update will focus on the exchange of fire between Iran and Israel. The evening update will be more comprehensive, covering events over the past 24-hour period and refining items discussed in the morning update. 

Please note that ISW-CTP will only be emailing the evening edition of our daily Iran Update Special Reports. You can find this morning's edition here on our website.

Click here to see ISW-CTP's interactive map showing the total strikes in Iran since June 12, as well as an interactive timelapse showing the strikes day-by-day.

Russia condemned the recent US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22 amid reports that Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on June 23. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) condemned the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22. The Russian MFA claimed that the US strikes are a violation of the UN Charter and that the UN Security Council is obliged to respond. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that the world will descend into chaos if countries are allowed to interpret the right to self-defense in the UN Charter as they wish. Lavrov claimed that the US strikes marked a new, dangerous escalation during a phone call with Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó on June 22. CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) and Presidential Special Representative for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries, Kirill Dmitriev, claimed on June 22 that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is en route to Moscow and will meet with Putin on June 23.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) implicitly threatened to attack US bases in the region in retaliation for US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The IRGC released a statement on June 22 warning the United States that it should “expect regrettable responses.” The IRGC said that the “number, dispersion, and size” of US bases in the region has “doubled [the US’] vulnerability.” Iran has previously attacked US forces in the region in response to US military action against Iran. Iranian media have widely circulated the IRGC statement as well as other threats to attack US interests in the region. A large majority of the sources are inaccessible because Iran has reportedly imposed a ”near-total internet blackout” across the country. An outlet affiliated with a cultural and ideological organization subordinate to the supreme leader posted a graphic on X outlining steps Iran could take in retaliation for US strikes. The graphic included Iranian attacks on US bases, activation of the Axis of Resistance, cyber-attacks on US infrastructure, and efforts to disrupt global markets. CTP-ISW reported in its June 22 Morning Update that the Iranian parliament conditionally approved a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz, which would disrupt international shipping. The Supreme National Security Council still needs to issue a final approval.

Key Takeaways:

• Iranian leaders uncharacteristically gave no explicit vow of retaliation against the United States. The closest was an IRGC statement warning of “regrettable responses.” This absence of coordinated threats may reflect the extent to which Iranian leaders are struggling to communicate with one another, as they isolate themselves to evade Israeli strikes.

• Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi will travel to Moscow and meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 23. The Kremlin condemned the US strikes and issued veiled threats that are likely meant to stoke panic among Western audiences, including key decision makers.

• Israel continued its strike campaign against Iran, targeting missile, drone, and air defense capabilities. One of the strikes targeted equipment that Iran uses to produce solid fuel for ballistic missiles, which will likely disrupt further the Iranian ability to reconstitute its degraded missile forces.

Click Here to Read the Full Update

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