Ria Reddy, Andie Parry, and Brian Carter



Information Cutoff: 5:00 AM ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) are publishing multiple updates daily to provide analysis on the war with Iran. The morning update will focus on the exchange of fire between Iran and Israel. The evening update will be more comprehensive, covering events over the past 24-hour period and refining items discussed in the morning update. 

Please note that ISW-CTP will only be emailing the evening edition of our daily Iran Update Special Reports. You can find this morning's edition here on our website.

Click here to see ISW-CTP's interactive map showing the total strikes in Iran since June 12, as well as an interactive timelapse showing the strikes day-by-day.

The United States conducted strikes against three Iranian nuclear sites, including the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEEP) in Qom Province. A US official told the New York Times that six American warplanes dropped 12 30,000-lb GBU-57 massive ordnance penetrator (MOP) bunker-busting bombs on Fordow. The standard payload of a B-2 bomber is 40,000 kg, but the bomber refueled immediately after takeoff. US President Donald Trump said on June 21 that US strikes were a "spectacular military success" and were a part of the US objective to destroy Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity. Trump said the facilities were “completely and totally obliterated.” The chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff said all three sites sustained "extreme damage and destruction.” The chairman added that he did not yet have a complete battle damage assessment at this time, however. A senior Israeli official told Axios that US strikes set back Iran's nuclear program by years. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that there has been ”no increase in off-site radiation levels” following the attacks.

Satellite imagery of Fordow from June 22 shows six probable entry-point craters on top of a ridge above the underground complex that houses two halls of at least 2000 centrifuges. Approximately half of the centrifuges at Fordow are advanced IR-6 centrifuges. The Wall Street Journal reported that Fordow was producing nearly enough highly enriched uranium to fuel one nuclear weapon per month. Two unspecified Israeli officials with knowledge of the matter said initial Israeli assessments indicate that US strikes did not destroy but inflicted serious damage to the site at Fordow. The officials added that it appears Iran moved materials and equipment from the site ahead of the strike. A senior US official similarly said that the US strikes did not destroy but severely damaged the Fordow nuclear site and took it “off the table.”

Key Takeaways:

• The United States conducted strikes targeting three nuclear facilities with bunker-buster bombs and Tomahawk cruise missiles. The US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said all three sites sustained “extreme damage.” Israeli officials echoed that statement, though they added the Fordow nuclear facility was “not destroyed.”

• Iran began taking steps to retaliate against the United States, including by threatening shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran likely interfered with GPS signals in the Strait of Hormuz on June 22.

• Israel continued its air campaign against Iran.

Click Here to Read the Full Update

Website | Jobs & Internships

Follow ISW on social media:

Facebook | X | YouTube | Instagram | LinkedIn | Threads | Bluesky

Donate online or by sending a check to the Institute for the Study of War at 1400 16th Street NW, Suite #515, Washington, DC, 20036. Please consider including the Institute for the Study of War in your estate plans.

ISW is a tax-exempt organization under section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Donations are tax-deductible to the extent permitted by law.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation's ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives.