Ben Schmida, Carolyn Moorman, Kelly Campa, and Annika Ganzeveld

Information Cutoff: 6:00 AM ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) will be publishing two updates per day while conditions in the Middle East warrant it. Our updates will provide insights into the ongoing strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and key military and nuclear program leadership. We will prioritize covering Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities in response to the attacks that threaten US forces and interests.

Click here to see an explainer on the structure and function of the entities within the Iranian armed forces and the roles that they play in regime security.

CTP-ISW has observed fewer reports of Israeli airstrikes from social media accounts based in Iran, which likely reflects widespread internet disruptions in Iran rather than an actual decrease in Israeli airstrikes. An internet monitoring group reported that Iran is currently facing a near-total internet shutdown.

The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) has struck several Iranian nuclear facilities since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff at 5:00 PM ET on June 18. The IDF struck the Arak Heavy Water Reactor in Markazi Province on June 19. Iran began construction of the heavy water reactor in 1997, but the reactor never became operational. Heavy water reactors produce plutonium as a byproduct, which can be used to create nuclear weapons. Iran agreed to redesign the facility to alleviate international concerns about possible plutonium production as part of the 2015 nuclear deal. The IDF said that it struck the facility due to its capacity to support the production of plutonium-based nuclear weapons. Iran has pursued a uranium-based, not plutonium-based, nuclear program. The IDF separately struck a storage facility in Natanz, Esfahan Province. The IDF said that the storage facility contained equipment that Iran could use to develop nuclear weapons. Previous Israeli airstrikes on the Natanz Enrichment Complex directly impacted the complex’s underground enrichment facilities.

Key Takeaways:

• The IDF struck several nuclear facilities, including the Arak Heavy Water Reactor in Markazi Province. Iran could use this reactor to support the production of plutonium-based nuclear weapons. The IDF also struck a storage facility linked to the Iranian nuclear program in Natanz, Esfahan Province.

• The IDF has struck at least six Iranian Ghadir radars since June 12, according to commercially available satellite imagery. Ghadir radars reportedly have the ability to detect aircraft from 1,100 kilometers away.

• An Iranian ballistic missile struck the Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba. Iranian ballistic missile attacks on Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff have injured over 200 individuals. The Israeli defense minister warned that Israel will intensify its attacks on Iran following the strike on the Soroka Medical Center.

Click Here to Read the Full Update

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