Ria Reddy, Johanna Moore, Andie Parry, Avery Borens, Ben Schmida, Nidal Morrison, Kelly Campa, and Annika Ganzeveld

Information Cutoff: 5:00 PM ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) will be publishing two updates per day while conditions in the Middle East warrant it. Our updates will provide insights into the ongoing strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and key military and nuclear program leadership. We will prioritize covering Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities in response to the attacks that threaten US forces and interests.

Click here to see an explainer on the structure and function of the entities within the Iranian armed forces and the roles that they play in regime security.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei categorically rejected US President Donald Trump’s call for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and threatened to target the United States if the United States intervenes in the Israel-Iran conflict. Khamenei’s statements are consistent with CTP-ISW's assessment that Iran has maintained its negotiating position on its nuclear program during the Israeli air campaign and does not yet appear willing to negotiate an end to the Israel-Iran War. Khamenei delivered a televised speech on June 18 in which he stated that Iran “will not surrender to anyone in the face of imposition.” Trump called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” in a social media post on June 17. Khamenei described Trump’s comments as “unacceptable” and “unwise.” Khamenei also warned that US involvement in the conflict will “undoubtedly cause irreparable damage to [the United States].” The United States is currently deploying additional assets to the Middle East to “provide options to defend US assets and interests.”

Key Takeaways:

• Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rejected the call from US President Donald Trump for Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” Khamenei also threatened US forces if the United States joins the war against Iran.

• The so-called “Axis of Resistance” has continued to threaten retaliation if the United States joins the war against Iran. These threats have come from Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.

• Israeli strikes have driven Iranian forces to begin firing missiles from central Iran rather than western Iran. Iranian forces will need to use longer-range missiles to reach Israel from the launch sites in central Iran.

• Iran is struggling to coordinate large-scale missile strikes targeting Israel due to pressure from Israeli strikes. This is reflected in the volume of recent Iranian missile fire, which has decreased significantly throughout the war.

• Iranian leaders appear concerned about the potential for social unrest. They have taken precautions to protect their regime, while Israel has struck sites connected to the Iranian internal security apparatus.

Click Here to Read the Full Update

Website | Jobs & Internships

Follow ISW on social media:

Facebook | X | YouTube | Instagram | LinkedIn | Threads | Bluesky

Donate online or by sending a check to the Institute for the Study of War at 1400 16th Street NW, Suite #515, Washington, DC, 20036. Please consider including the Institute for the Study of War in your estate plans.

ISW is a tax-exempt organization under section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Donations are tax-deductible to the extent permitted by law.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation's ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve US strategic objectives.