Johanna Moore, Carolyn Moorman, Ben Rezaei, Ben Schmida, Kelly Campa, and Annika Ganzeveld

Information Cutoff: 5:00 PM ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) will be publishing two updates per day while conditions in the Middle East warrant it. Our updates will provide insights into the ongoing strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and key military and nuclear program leadership. We will prioritize covering Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities in response to the attacks that threaten US forces and interests.

Click here to see an explainer on the structure and function of the entities within the Iranian armed forces and the roles that they play in regime security.

Iranian officials have expressed interest in negotiating an end to the Israel-Iran conflict but have not moderated their negotiating positions from before the conflict. An unspecified US official cited by Axios on June 19 stated that US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff has been in contact with Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi and has received some indications that Iran is interested in resuming negotiations. Two Iranian government planes landed in Oman, which has been mediating between Iran and the United States, on June 18. It is unclear who was on these planes or whether the flights to Oman were related to negotiations. Araghchi announced on June 19 that he will meet with representatives from the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the European Union in Geneva on June 20 to discuss “the nuclear issue and the latest developments in the region.” French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean Noel Barrot stated on June 19 that France is prepared to support negotiations with the United States to “scale back” Iran’s nuclear enrichment and ballistic missile programs. Negotiations to “scale back” Iran’s enrichment and ballistic missile programs would be consistent with Iran’s objective to maintain both programs. These objectives contradict stated US objectives to achieve zero uranium enrichment and degrade the Iranian ballistic missile program.

Key Takeaways:

• Iranian officials have expressed interest in negotiating an end to the Israel-Iran conflict but have not moderated their negotiating positions from before the conflict. Iranian proposals that do not fulfill US demands, such as the US demand for zero Iranian uranium enrichment, will likely preclude Iran from reaching a new nuclear deal with the United States and a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran War.

• The IDF has continued to strike Iranian nuclear, military, and energy infrastructure. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on June 19 that "preventing [Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s] existence” is one of the Israeli air campaign’s objectives.

• Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Brigadier General Mohammad Karami as the IRGC Ground Forces commander on June 19. Khamenei’s appointment of Karami may reflect regime concerns about potential domestic unrest, given that Karami has previously been involved in suppressing internal dissent.

• Iran has continued its ballistic missile campaign despite the IDF’s claims that it has destroyed between one-half and two-thirds of Iran’s missile launchers. Iran has launched more advanced missiles targeting Israel since June 18.

• Iranian-backed Iraqi militias continue to threaten retaliation if the United States joins the Israel-Iran War. The Kataib Hezbollah spokesperson warned on June 19, for example, that US participation in the war would trigger attacks on US bases in the region, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al Mandab, and the closure of ports in the Red Sea.

Click Here to Read the Full Update

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